BALKANIZING AEGEAN STRIKE It's 1995 and the Balkans are aflame. Do you know where your troops are tonight? Some 300-600 American troops are serving in the United Nations peacekeeping force in the former Yugoslav province of Macedonia. Macedonia has declared itself independent, but is not recognized by Serbia, Greece, or the United States, but it may become the focus of U.S. attempts to prevent the spread of war in the Balkans. In March 1995 the administration was considering increasing the number of American troops there, possibly up to 10,000. Why are we about to learn more about Macedonia? Because the Balkans are a military hot spot these days, and Avalon Hill does have an operational level game that covers the southern Balkans, including Macedonia -- AEGEAN STRIKE. If you have ever wondered about air strikes as a policy tool, the effectiveness of UN forces, our ability to support troops in the Balkans, here's your chance to game it out. Ethnic and political background (see letter below for another view). Macedonians are ethnic Slavs. The language is most closely related to Bulgarian and uses the Cyrillic alphabet. Significant numbers of Macedonians live in Bulgaria and Greece. And Macedonia itself has a large minority of Muslim Albanians. Macedonia has been striving for independence for a long time, with terrorist activity since the mid-1800s (directed mostly against the Turks at first). But Macedonian independence has not been greeted with enthusiasm in the region. Serbia does not recognize the state and considers it a province of the rump Yugoslavia. Greece is witholding recognition and objecting to the use of the name "Macedonia" since it has its own province of Macedonia and fears territorial claims (Greece prefers "Republic of Skopje"). Bulgaria regards Macedonia as part of Greater Bulgaria, an entity that existed briefly after the Treaty of San Stefano in 1878. Bulgaria is very solicitous of its ethnic brothers and regards itself as their protector. Though when Bulgarian troops occupied the region for Germany during World War II, they were targets for Macedonian partisans. The Albanian minority is supressed, as it is everywhere. A year or so ago several ethnic Albanians, including a Macedonian Deputy Minister of Defense, were arrested for smuggling arms into Macedonia from Albania. Greece and Bulgaria get along surprisingly well, due to a common distrust of Turkey. Greece and Albania have some friction however. When some members of the Greek minority in Albania were arrested for spying a while back, Greece expelled 30,000 (!) Albanian "guest workers". The Serb's desire to bring Macedonia back into the Yugoslav fold is probably mitigated by the way Macedonia serves as a transshipment route for evading the economic blockade of Serbia. Updating AEGEAN STRIKE. On the map, the northernmost hexes of Macedonia are: 1107, 1206, 1306, 1405, 1506, 1605, 1706. Everything north of these is Serbia. Skopje is the captial of Macedonia. Macedonia has no armed forces. Greek and Turkish forces can be used with no change. Bulgaria's armed forces need to be cut back a little -- postcommunist economic reality has set in. Eliminate: the 3 MiG 17 units, 3 MiG 21 units, one 6-2-8 mechanized infantry, one 4-2-8 mechanized infantry. Albanian armed forces have also been shrinking from economic and political turmoil. They are also short of transport, fuel, spare parts, and anything else you can think of. The air force consists of old Chinese J6s, copies of the MiG 19. The three Bulgarian MiG17 counters are perfect for these. The army should consist of: four 2-*-4 infantry brigades, two 5-*-4 infantry divisions, one (1)-1-8 artillery brigade, one 2-1-6 engineer regiment, and one (1)-1-8 HQ. Five brigade-equivalents active at start, the rest reserve. Setup within one hex of Tirane or Fier. Two old Soviet subs are their only potential naval threat. Copy the Bulgarian sub counter, which also represents two old Soviet subs. If you wish, add a port for them at Durres, in hex 0708. Serbian armed forces. For the air forces, use five counters of MiG 21s. These are a mix of old and updated, so both the Bulgarian MiG 21 values and the weaker MiG 21 counters from GULF STRIKE can be used. One counter of MiG29s, same as the Russians but an ECM rating of one less (export version). One counter of Mi8 helicopters, same values as Bulgarian. Three counters of their home-built Orao ground support aircraft. They look like this (bombardment/antiair/ECM/hits/movement): 3/*/2/4/2 The air force will need two more 6/2 airbases in Strategic Hex AU-01. The navy needs three counters: Some home-built subs: *-*-*-3-4-4-3 Some missile frigates: 1-2-2-2-2-3-4 Some missile patrol boats: *-1-2-2-*-2-2 And a port in Strategic Hex AT-02 (Bay of Cattaro). Counter mix for the ground forces: one 3-1-8 armor brigade; two 2-*-8 armor brigades. Five 2-1-6 mechanized brigades; one 6-2-6 mechanized division. Three 2-*-4 infantry brigades; three 6-1-4 infantry divisions. One (1)-3-8 headquarters; one truck unit; three (1)-3-4 air defense regiments; two (1)-2-8 artillery regiments; one elite 3-*-4 paratroop brigade; one elite 3-*-4 mountain brigade; one 2-1-6 engineer brigade. Active at start: 20 brigade-equivalents, the rest reserve. Twelve brigade-equivalents (active or reserve) may set up on the tactical map, the rest in Strategic Hexes AU-01 or AT-02. Supply levels (given as at start/per turn): Turkey - 60/30 Greece - 50/20 Bulgaria - 50/20 Serbia - 45/15 Albania - 30/8 Given the complicated ethnic and political situation in the Balkans, just about any scenario you can imagine is possible. But here are some suggestions to help you get started: The Albanian minority in Macedonia stages an uprising -- and succeeds. Serbia invades to save Slavs from atrocities. Bulgaria invades to save Slavs from Serbia. Place one 2-*-4 militia brigade, representing the rebels, in Skopje. Place a 1-1-6 brigade representing the UN peacekeepers in Skopje. This unit will not attack anyone but will defend itself. Variants: starting on Turn one would mean everyone was caught by surprise. Start on Turn 15 to simulate a slow-developing situation. Or roll a die and use the result as the starting turn. Have the U.S. rescue the UN unit. And what if the uprising fails? Citing intolerable Albanian interference in Macedonia and Kosovo, Serbia invades Albania. Variants: Turkey supports Albania with supply only. With aircraft. With ground troops. That might prompt Greece to support Serbia. With aircraft. With ground troops. Again, vary the starting turn. You could also experiment with Serbian supply levels to represent more/less effective embargoes or Greek aid. You can use the NATO and Russian units to experiment with various UN force levels in Macedonia. What would be required to stop an invasion? There's a good deal of debate going on about military options in the Balkans. AEGEAN STRIKE can shed some light on claims about the effectiveness of air strikes, embargoes, UN peacekeepers, foreign intervention, and the like. The possible conflicts are many. Don't be shy in conjuring up situations to try out. It will give you a greater understanding of the potential and limitations of military force than most people have. Just another benefit of our hobby. A Greek view of the area's history: Dear Sir, I'm writing you about your article "Balkanizing Aegean Strike", that I found through grognard.com. It is quite obvious, that your historical knowledge of the Aimos chersonese (Balkans is a Turkish word) area is quite limited. That is the conclusion from what you write in your scenario. It's ok to be ignorant of the history of an area of this or any planet. It's not ok though to write stupid things -just because you copied it from somewhere- and to distort True History. Your Balkan Scenario for Aegean Strike, heavily propagandizes the positions of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia governement. I do not believe it is something you did on purpose, but nevertheless it gets across the wrong idea about the area. Of course, you need to support (or make excusses) your governement's actions in the area, but when you reverse the roles of the murderers and the victims, that is going too far. I will not tire you further by giving you info about Turks, Albanians, Bulgarians and the Slavs you call Macedonians and their exploits in the region, but I'll tell you 2 things. 1. The ancient Macedonians were unanimously accepted by all Greeks as being part of the race, therefore they participated in the (ancient) Olympic Games. note: everyone who was not Greek - was barbarian, and barbarians were not allowed into the Olympia area, even as observers. 2. The Slavs, came into Macedonia approximately, 1.000 years after Alexander the Great died. Thanks for your patience please do alter the "history" of your scenario and if you have objections, try and read about the matter and you'll be convinced. a fellow wargamer George A BALKANIZING AEGEAN STRIKE. Part 1. Updating the original orders of battle. Since Aegean Strike was published nearly ten years ago, some of the countries in the region have undergone significant political and economic changes. Here are the changes that need to be made to the counter mix for Greece and Bulgaria to reflect current forces. You have three options for new counters which may be needed: 1) use counters from unused countries in Aegean Strike; 2) use counters from Gulf Strike, if you own it; 3) make up your own counters. Greece: The number of infantry divisions has fallen from 11 to 9. However, there are now 5 tank brigades -- add another 2-8 armor brigade. The navy has modernized -- most of the World War II destroyers are gone. In their place are four decommissioned U.S. guided missle destroyers, and 8 frigates, about half of which are less than 10 years old. The anti-ship missle ratings of the game's DD units should probably be raised to 4. The air force has not changed much. Actually, if you're lazy like me, the Greek forces as given in the game could be used for any Balkan conflict without much loss of realism. Bulgaria: has reduced the number of tanks it has. The number of tanks in the mechanized divisions have been reduced by 30%. All these divisions should probably be 4-6s. Active forces are three mechanized divisions and four tank brigades, probably 2-8s. Reserves are 4 mechanized divisions. With the smaller units accounted for, Bulgaria should have five division-equivalents available on active duty at the start of a scenario, the rest in reserve. The set-up is still the same as in the game; the First Army is active and the Second Army is reserve. The Bulgarian navy has not changed significantly, but the air force has. The MIG 17s are gone (but save them -- Albania can use them). They've acquired some more modern aircraft, but still have a large number of MIG 21s. My best guess as to the current counter mix: 6 MIG 21, 2 MIG 23, 1 MIG 29, 2 SU 24 (these are actually a SU 25 unit and some MIG 23s configured for ground support, but no such counters are available, even in Gulf Strike). ECM ratings should be one less than on equivalent Soviet units. Next: OBs for Albania and Serbia. BALKANIZING AEGEAN STRIKE Part II. New countries. Albania: With the country in political and economic turmoil, the armed forces have been shrinking -- almost to the point of vanishing. Total ground force strength, including all reserves, is one armor brigade and 11 infantry brigades, with some artillery and engineers. How many men would show up if the reserves were called is anyone's guess. Use the following counter mix: one 2*8 tank brigade, four 2*4 infantry brigades, two 5*4 infantry divisions, one (1)-1-8 artillery regt, one 2-1-6 engineer regt, one (1)-1-8 HQ. Five brigade- equivalents are active at start; the rest are reserve. The air force has about 100 aircraft. Most of them are J6s, Chinese copies of the MIG 19. Use the three Bulgarian MIG 17 counters for them. There are a few J7s, which are copies of the MIG 21, so if you feel sorry for the Albanians you could give them a Gulf Strike MIG 21 counter, with the 2/4 ground/air values. The Bulgarian 3/5 MIG 21 counters that come with Aegean Strike are too powerful for an air force that has a truly bad spare parts and fuel situation. Realistically, they may not be able to get more than one counter's worth of aircraft airborne. The navy might have two operational submarines (out of four they own). You could use or copy the Bulgarian sub counter, which also represents two old Soviet diesel subs. The only other craft of note are 29 Chinese hydrofoil torpedo boats. At least six of these have been cannibalized for parts. One was sailed to Italy by its crew, looking for work. There are no missle craft, and the hydrofoils have no other armament except machine guns. I don't think they'll play any significant part in a Balkan conflict. Albania does need to be given a port at Durres (Durazzo) in hex 0708. BALKANIZING AEGEAN STRIKE Part II continued Yugoslavia (Serbia): the army is organized with the brigade as the largest operational unit. The counter mix for the ground forces: 1 (1)-3-8 HQ. One 3-1-8 armor brigade; two 2-*-8 armor brigades. Eight 2-1-6 mechanized infantry brigades. Twelve 2-*-4 infantry brigades. One truck unit. Three (1) -3-4 air defense brigades. Two (1)-2-8 artillery brigades. One elite 3-*-4 paratroop brigade. One elite 3-*-4 mountain brigade. Active on start (and this is a big guess): 20 brigades, the rest reserve. Air force: mostly MIG 21s (about 100 - 5 counters). One counter of MIG 29s. A lot of locally-built Orao ground support aircraft. One counter of Mi 8 attack helos. The MIGs and Mi 8s would be the same as for the Bulgarians. My best guess as to the Oraos (given as bombardment/antiair/ECM/hits/movement): three counters @ 3/*/2/4/2. The air force will need two more 6/2 airbases in Strategic Hex AU01. Navy: Counter strengths are given as bombardment/antiair/antiship/ECM/ subsurface/hits/movement. The navy has five homebuilt submarines from the 1970s. One counter: *-*-*-3-4-4-3. Four frigates that do carry Styx missles. One counter: 1-2-2-2-2-3-4. Twelve fast missle boats. One counter: *-1-2-2-*-2-2. The navy will have to be given a port in Strategic Hex AT02 (it's based in the Bay of Cattaro). Stan Buck