David Buckland - 02:59am May 20, 2001 PST (#668 of 692) The replay (or after action report, or whatever) which follows was played sometime ago, when I and my usual opponent were (we hope) less skilled, and less sure of the rules. ­ this is our excuse for any mistakes re rules or strategy. It is written from the Allied viewpoint (as played by yours truly), with some post-game Japanese comments inserted where appropriate (paragraphs marked “Japan”). Optional Rules The game was played with the optional rules for Air Search and Overrunning Enemy Units. Historical deployments were used: we felt that this better represents the start of the war than it might for later scenarios, when Hidden Deployment might be preferable. Turn 1: December 1941 to February 1942 The Japanese invade both Manila and Singapore in strength, presumably to take advantage of surprise [no Allied double defence]. They also attack Davao, Borneo, and Port Moresby, while grabbing (or attempting to grab) Attu, Wake, Tarawa, Rabaul, and Manokwari. The Pearl Harbor raid force returns to Truk. The Allies assume that both Japanese principal targets (Manila and Singapore) will fall, and concentrate on building up the defences of the likely next targets. So, an Australian division is sea-lifted to Palembang, to defend the vital oil wells, and an Indian division to the Andaman Islands (to create a base which will screen India, at least for a while). American infantry (2 divisions) are moved to New Caledonia, to help block any Japanese plans for expansion into the Southwest Pacific. However, the Allies do not want to rely solely on defensive moves, so the Enterprise carrier group at Johnson Island [2CV, 2 x 2CA], and the remaining Pacific Fleet units at Pearl [2SS, 1BB, 3CA], move to contest the Japanese invasion of the Gilberts at Tarawa. The Philippines invasion force is, as expected, overwhelming [3NA, 2AF, 2SS, 3CA, 1MA, 2IN], and discretion is the better part of valour for the US forces defending Manila, the remnants of which manage to pull back to Timor [2AF, 1SS]. The victorious Japanese regroup to the Palaus for the most part. Singapore is faced with an even more powerful attack [3NA, 3AF, 2BB, 3CA, 3IN] and succumbs swiftly, though RAF units [1AF(Br)] escape. Meanwhile, in lesser actions, Davao and Borneo fall to the invaders, though the US Navy cruisers in both areas escape successfully, and Port Moresby is effectively blockaded by IJN submarines. At Tarawa, an IJN air flotilla [2NA] decides it is over-matched by the US Pacific Fleet, and pulls back to the Marshalls. The American units rebase to the Ellice Islands, from where they can both threaten Kwajalein, and reach Guadalcanal. At this early stage, the difficulty is in knowing where the Japanese intend to strike next. The attacks on Manila and Singapore have pulled a significant proportion of the available Japanese forces into South East Asia, but this is no guarantee they will stay there, now that Singapore and Manila have fallen (though they will also want Palembang). Substantial forces are still in the Home Islands, possibly for rebuilding, but possibly also to invade Alaska when the bad weather clears later in the year. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 3CV, IN(Au) Palembang +2 to 3CV, AF(Au) Darwin +2 to 2CV, IN(In) Ceylon +1 to 1CV; American AF Panama +2 to 3CV, CV Panama +1 to 2CV, CA Panama +1 to 3CV, MA Panama +1 to 2CV, IN San Diego +3 to 4CV, AF Seattle +3 to 4CV.] David Buckland - 03:01am May 20, 2001 PST (#669 of 692) Turn 2: March to May 1942 [The Japanese win the initiative die roll, and get to decide the movement order, choosing to go first, which is what I would do in their shoes, since they can therefore forestall any significant reinforcement of Palembang, and any other targets they have in mind.] Japan: The Japanese plan is to launch their major post-Pearl attack towards Hawaii, while subsidiary thrusts threaten Australia (both east and west coasts). This means that attacks towards India will in fact halt once Palembang’s oilfields are captured. The movement of the main Japanese fleet to Kwajalein indicates a Japanese offensive towards Hawaii or, possibly, Samoa. However, the main invasion this turn is launched against Palembang, though Batavia and northern Sumatra are also attacked (probably as much to prevent any reinforcements to Palembang as for their intrinsic value to the Japanese. Elsewhere, subsidiary forces grab Lae and Tarawa (again). The forces the Japanese send against Palembang, defended by the doughty Australians, are only just strong enough [3NA, 1CV, 2BB, 3CA, 4IN] to overcome the garrison. The supporting operations find the going easier, capturing Batavia and Banda Atjeh easily enough. The intervention of the RAAF makes the going a little tougher for the enemy in Timor, and they lose several cruisers in the process of rounding off their conquest of the Dutch East Indies. Meanwhile, in the light of the build-up in the Marshalls, the Americans redeploy land-based air units to Phoenix and the Ellice Islands, while the main US fleet remains based at the latter, having once again thwarted the Japanese attempt to take Tarawa on the cheap. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 3CV, CA(Au) Brisbane +1 to 3CV, AF(Au) Darwin +1 to 3CV, IN(Au) Darwin +3 to 3CV; American CV Panama +1 to 3CV, MA Panama +1 to 3CV, AF San Diego +3 to 4CV, AF Seattle +2 to 3CV, CA Seattle +1 to 3CV, IN Seattle +3 to 4CV.] David Buckland - 03:02am May 20, 2001 PST (#670 of 692) Turn 3: June to August 1942 [The Japanese win the initiative die roll, and elect to move second, so that they can pick and choose the weak spots in the Allied defence ­ and giving up the chance of grabbing Guadalcanal on the cheap.] A lack of certainty about Japanese intentions leads the Allies to adopt a broadly defensive strategy. Disputed Tarawa is within range of potentially lethal Japanese naval air from Kwajalein, so the main US fleet remains stationed in the Ellice Islands, albeit considerably strengthened by the arrival of the Saratoga carrier group [3CV, 3BB], while the Enterprise task force [2CV] moves to Hawaii. Substantial American reinforcements [4IN] are despatched to Guadalcanal as well. The Japanese are also fairly quiescent, capturing Tarawa and Midway (in the latter case, a couple of heavy cruisers are lost to Japanese naval air), but otherwise engaging in no aggressive attacks. The monsoon is, of course, a limiting factor for both sides, but even so, Allied intelligence notes the running down of Imperial forces in the Dutch East Indies and threatening the British: this looks very much like as if Hawaii or Samoa is the chief Japanese target. Japan: Hawaii, in actual fact, though Allied intelligence have missed the lesser ­ but still significant ­ build-up against Australia and the Southwest Pacific. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 3CV, IN(Au) Brisbane +2 to 3CV, AF(Br) Ceylon +1 to 2CV, BB(Br) South Africa +1 to 1CV; American BB South Dakota Panama +1 to 1CV, MA Panama +2 to 2CV, AF Seattle +3 to 4CV, CA San Diego +3 to 4CV.] Turn 4: September to November 1942 [Yet again, the Japanese win the initiative, and decide to move second.] The Allies, still in a fog about Japanese intentions, await developments, and these are not slow in coming ­ after pausing for breath in recent months, the Japanese surge forward again. In secondary operations, Port Moresby is captured (a lucky stoke by the reinforced Kure SNLF), as is Phoenix, but not before the invasion force is devastated by B-52s based on the island [4IN reduced to 1CV, Allied 3AF taking no losses and rebasing to Palmyra]. The big clash is in the Ellice Islands, where the main fleets collide [Japanese 3NA, 4CV, 2CV, 3BB, 2BB, 2 x 3CA; Allies 4AF, 3CV, 2SS, 3BB, 2 x 3CA], the Japanese having a definite edge overall. The result is an American defeat, but not without loss to the IJN [losses: Japanese 2CV, 1BB, 3CA; Allies 4AF, 1CV, 3BB, 6CA]. The remnants of the American fleet base at Palmyra, the Japanese at Phoenix. It looks like the enemy is going for Pearl. [Damn! Forgot that as the Allies in the early going it is inadvisable to operate without land-based air superiority. Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, CV(Br) South Africa +1 to 2CV, AF(Br) Ceylon +1 to 3CV; Americans AF San Diego +4 to 4CV, CV San Diego +1 to 3CV, IN San Diego +4 to 4CV, BB South Dakota Panama +1 to 2CV, CA Panama + 1 to 1CV.] David Buckland - 11:20am May 20, 2001 PST (#672 of 692) Turn 5: December 1942 to February 1943 [There is a wailing and a gnashing of teeth on the Allied side as the Japanese win the initiative yet again. They decide to let the Allies move first. ] Japan: after some considerable debate as to whether to move first, pin the forces in Palmyra, and invade Hawaii (having cut off the latter’s main source of reinforcements). Eventually, the Japanese decide that this is a little too ambitious, especially given their weakened carrier strength, and that they will await news of Allied deployments first. The vaunted Allied code-breaking effort is still failing to yield much indication of enemy intentions. Leaving Hawaii to be guarded by a strong garrison [4AF, 3AF, 2 x 4IN], the Americans re-build their main Pacific fleet at Christmas Island around the newly-arrived Saratoga class carriers [4AF, 3CV, 2SS, 1BB, 4CA, 2 x 3CA] ­ the Enterprise carriers withdraw to the West Coast for repairs. The Japanese are in fact upping their tempo, launching attacks on Hawaii, Guadalcanal, and Broome (NW Australia). The Hawaii invasion force seems too weak to actually capture it [2 x 2CV, 3SS, 3BB, 3CA, 4IN], and is indeed repulsed, an ill-advised attempt to implement a blockade by submarines being ruthlessly punished by the plentiful American land-based air [Japanese losses: 3SS, 1CA, 2IN ­ the submarine losses were incurred on the second round, the other naval forces having withdrawn after the first round to Phoenix, while the attacking infantry returned to the Ellice Islands]. Both sides are surprised by the strength of the forces deployed at Guadalcanal [Japanese: 3NA, 3AF, 3SS, 2BB, 3CA, 2MA; Allies 4AF, 4IN]. The Japanese swiftly establish air superiority, but the Kure SNLF is unable to overcome the stubborn US infantry, and is itself effectively annihilated. The IJN is able, however, to blockade the US base, which is an improvement on the rebuff at Hawaii [Losses: Japanese 2MA; Allies 2AF, 3IN]. Broome, meanwhile, is easily captured [Japanese 3NA, 1CV, 3CA, 1MA; Allies 1SS, which is destroyed by the Japanese NA]. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, CV(Br) South Africa +1 to 3CV, CA(Br) South Africa +1 to 2CV, IN(Au) Perth +2 to 2CV; American AF San Diego +4 to 4CV, CV San Diego +1 to 3CV, BB South Dakota Panama +1 to 3CV, CA Panama +2 to 3CV.] Turn 6: March to May 1943 [In customary fashion, the Japanese win the initiative die roll, 5 out of 5 so far, and decide to move first.] Japan: painful though it is to admit it, the Japanese offensive against Hawaii has run out of puff. With the forces at their disposal, taking Hawaii by direct assault seems virtually impossible, while the fleet based in Phoenix now looks horribly vulnerable, with very little cruiser screen. To get the fleet out of danger, the Japanese decide to move first, and look for another potential route for an offensive. The Japanese abandon their drive for Hawaii, if that is what it was. The main enemy fleet appears to have moved from Phoenix to the Ellice Islands, while strong forces invade northern Queensland at Townsville, and attempt to prolong the blockade of Guadalcanal. In response, the main American fleet, now strengthened by the arrival of the new South Dakota-class battleships [3CV] moves to Samoa, while substantial land-based air units bolster the defences of Brisbane. Townsville is left to the Japanese, but the small Japanese landing at Broome, on the northwest coast, is forced to retreat back to the former Dutch East Indies, though with no significant losses on either side [forces deployed: Allies 3AF(Au), 3CA(Au), 3IN(Au); Japanese 3NA, 1MA ­ the Japanese retreat]. Meanwhile, the Americans prepare the ground for their own counterthrust in the Central Pacific, with their 1st Marine Corps moving to New Caledonia. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, BB(Br) South Africa +1 to 2CV, CA(Br) South Africa +1 to 3CV, IN(Au) Perth +1 to 3CV; American CV Essex Panama +2 to 2CV, CA Panama +1 to 4CV, CA Panama +4 to 4CV, MA Panama +1 to 3CV.] David Buckland - 11:22am May 20, 2001 PST (#673 of 692) Turn 7: June to August 1943 [The Japanese continue their amazing run, winning yet another initiative die roll. They elect to move first, so as to dictate the pace.] Japan: the Japanese would apparently have preferred to target Australia, once they had given up on Hawaii, but had to compromise, as the approaching monsoon made attacking Australia even more difficult. There is an ominous-looking concentration of forces in the southern Dutch East Indies [4 blocks each in Batavia and Timor, 3 in Manokwari], but the main Japanese move is an attack on the New Hebrides, while diversionary attacks are mounted on New Caledonia [to pin the Allied forces there, and prevent reinforcements getting to the New Hebrides from Brisbane]. Phoenix is quietly abandoned by the Japanese. The Allies decide that the time has come to confront the Japanese more directly. A strong force [2 x 4AF, 3MA, 3IN(Au)] attacks Townsville, where the defending forces are distinctly outmatched [3SS, 1BB, 4IN, 1IN]. The naval units withdraw in the face of enemy air superiority, and the infantry are quickly overwhelmed by a combination of American air power and marines. Only a toehold in Cairns remains to the Japanese in mainland Australia. The Ellice Islands are recaptured with the help of an invasion from Samoa [at a cost of 1 SS CV], and a second strike force is formed at Pearl Harbor around the 2nd Marine Corps and the Enterprise-class carriers [3CV]. However, the main decision made by the Allies is to challenge the IJN for control of the New Hebrides. Although the Americans can bring no land-based air to bear, neither can the Japanese, and while the existing naval forces in the area [1BB Tennessee] are something of a liability, there is the hope that the Japanese will be weakened by the need to escort any invasion forces, and attrition is in the Allies’ favour, even if they fail to win outright. Sadly, there are no invasion convoys, and the US is outclassed, though not hopelessly [USN 3CV, 3BB South Dakota, 1BB, 4CA, 2 x 3CA; Japanese 3CV, 2CV, 2 x 3BB, 2 x 3CA]. Luckily, the US manages to find the enemy first [winning a competitive DR for once]. The Japanese suffer a disaster when their second airstrike [4CV at N3] fails to find the American fleet [just as it was poised to do major damage], and the IJN is decisively beaten [losses: American 4CA, Japanese 3CV, 4BB, 6CA]. The turning point of the Pacific War? The remnants of the Combined Fleet retreat to Port Moresby. [Whether or not Pacific Victory could recreate the historical Midway is questionable though it is not alone in WW2 Pacific theatre games in having this problem. However, whereas many major naval clashes in the game are draws or close results (see the battle in the Ellice Islands in Turn 4), the game can certainly deliver lopsided battles, despite the balance of forces involved: in this case, the Japanese had a definite edge. In addition, the turn scale argues for treating these “battles” as campaigns, rather than individual engagements] [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, BB(Br) South Africa + 1 to 3CV, CA(Br) South Africa +1 to 4CV, IN(In) Ceylon +1 to 2CV; American CA San Diego +3 to 4CV, CV Essex Panama +1 to 3CV, CV Essex Panama +1 to 1CV, CA Panama +3 to 3CV.] Turn 8: September to November 1943 [The Japanese might have bad luck in crucial combats, but their good fortune in initiative DRs has not deserted them: 7 out of 7 won so far. They elect to go first.] Typhoons strike the Arafura Sea ­ which means that Darwin and parts of the East Indies will be effectively immobilised. Japan: the Japanese move first to establish some form of decent perimeter in the SW Pacific before the US juggernaut gets going. A planned diversionary attack on Darwin is cancelled because of the adverse weather. The main Japanese bastion in the SW Pacific seems to be Rabaul [8 blocks], though Kwajalein has also been reinforced [3 blocks]. Port Moresby seems relatively lightly defended [2 blocks]. Phoenix is abandoned, the Japanese outer defence line now resting on Tarawa. No Japanese offensive moves, which is not surprising considering their recent debacle. The Americans are not strong enough to tackle Rabaul immediately (and are badly positioned to attack Port Moresby), so content themselves with ending the blockade of Guadalcanal, and moving reinforcements into the area (most notably, the first [3CV] Essex-class carriers). In another preparation for the future, the Royal Navy, after a gradual build-up in South Africa [to 3CV, 3BB, 4CA] redeploys to Western Australia to threaten the Japanese hold on the Dutch East Indies. In the Central Pacific, Midway is retaken by a task force built around the Enterprise-class carriers and the 2nd Marine Corps, while to the south, Tarawa is blockaded. The Allied plan is to pose more threats ­ to the East Indies, to the Southwestern and Central Pacific ­ than the Japanese can effectively cover, and thus overwhelm the defences at some point. [Builds: British SHQ + 1 to 4CV, AF(Br) Ceylon +1 to 4CV, IN(In) Ceylon +1 to 3CV; American CV Essex Panama +3 to 4CV, BB Iowa Panama +1 to 1CV, CA Panama + 1 to 4CV.] David Buckland - 11:23am May 20, 2001 PST (#674 of 692) Turn 9: December 1943 to February 1944 [At last the Japanese lose ­ or, more accurately, fail to win ­ an initiative DR. The Allies choose to move second, as there do not seem to be many obvious gaps in the enemy defences.] As the Japanese prepare for the inevitable Allied blows to land, some rearranging of the defences is observable. Wake, for example, has been strengthened. Most notably, what looks like a major force [6 blocks] is concentrated at Jakarta (ie. in range of the Anglo-Australian task force in Carnarvon, while minor blocking forces reoccupy Broome, and a blockade is mounted against Darwin. The major Allied move is an invasion of Port Moresby by a powerful land/air/sea force [2 x 4AF, 3CV Essex, 3CV, 3BB South Dakota, 4CA, 3MA, 3IN(Au)]. The Japanese have a strong garrison [4IN, 3IN] which, despite overwhelming enemy firepower, is able to cling on [Japanese lose 7IN, the Allies 2AF]. A major repulse for the Allies, given their high expectations of victory. Better news from Wake, where the 2nd Marine Corps records another success, capturing the island from their opposite numbers in the Yokosuka SNLF. The escorting naval units suffer badly at the hands of IJN land-based air [1CV, 3CA], but this is more than made up for by the reinforcements arriving at Midway [4CV Essex, 4CA]. Finally, Broome is easily recaptured, though Darwin is still blockaded. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, IN(In) Ceylon +2 to 3CV, IN(In) Calcutta +1 to 3CV, IN(In) Burma +1 to 3CV, IN(In) Andaman Islands + 1 to 2CV; American AF Cairns +1 to 4CV, AF Townsville +1 to 4CV, CV Essex Panama +3 to 4CV.] Turn 10: March to May 1944 [Things get back to normal as the Japanese win the initiative DR, deciding to go second. As often in PV, this puts the attacker in a dilemma. For example, left unpinned, the main Japanese fleet in Rabaul could checkmate any American attempt to attack Kwajalein (or, indeed, any Allied attack within range), but pinning the Rabaul force would require the commitment of the main US fleet in the Pacific, based at Guadalcanal, to a fight with an apparently superior enemy at Rabaul.] Deciding that progress is necessary before the monsoon season slows things down across much of the conflict zone, the Allies launch attacks on Batavia, Port Moresby, Rabaul, and Kwajalein. The first and third of these are against possibly superior enemy forces, but the Allies feel that the attacks are still worth while, partly to pin the main Japanese forces, partly because of the benefits to the Allies of attrition (even if unbalanced), and partly because of the possibility of a devastating surprise victory. At Kwajalein, the Americans have the advantage [US 4AF, 4CV Essex, 2 x 4CA, 3MA; Japanese 3NA, 3AF, 1IN], and the Japanese base falls, but not before the defending air units exact a heavy toll on the task force accompanying the invasion flotilla [2CV, 4CA]. The biggest clash is at Rabaul [Allies 4AF, 3CV Essex, 3CV, 3BB South Dakota, 1BB, 4CA, 3CA; Japanese 3NA, 3AF, 2 x 2CV, 3SS, 2BB, 1BB, 3CA, 2IN]. Fortunately for the Americans, they find the enemy fleet first. The Japanese decide to withdraw their naval forces, and the Americans remain to blockade Rabaul [losses: Allies 3CA; Japanese 1NA, 3AF, 1SS, 1BB, 2CA ­ one advantage of the IJN retreat is that they are able to “rebase” to Truk this way, which is significant, given that the fall of Kwajalein makes lightly held Truk and Saipan vulnerable if the Allies move first next turn]. Meanwhile, in a gallant action the 1st Marine Corps storms the defences of Port Moresby, overwhelming the defenders [1IN, 1GA]. In the former Dutch East Indies, the newly-constituted Anglo-Australian task force attacks Java [British 3AF(Au), 3CV(Br), 3BB(Br), 4CA(Br), 3CA(Au), 3IN(Au); Japanese 3NA, 3AF, 1CV, 3CA, 1CA, 1MA, 1IN). The substantial Japanese land-based air cover gives plenty of warning of the invasion, and the British are easily repulsed, with heavy losses [3AF, 1BB, 3CA, 3IN, compared to just 1AF for the Japanese]. In lesser actions, a British invasion of Thailand from Burma is easily repulsed, but the blockade of Darwin is lifted. All told, the Allies are making some progress (especially the capture of Kwajalein), but the Japanese still seem very strong, even if their land-based air units did suffer in the most recent fighting [3 out of 7 eliminated] On the other hand, the monsoon will impose a slowdown on offensive plans. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, CA(Br) Broome +1 to 3CV, AF(Au) Darwin +1 to 1CV, IN(Au) Darwin +1 to 1CV; American CV Essex Midway +1 to 3CV, CV San Diego +1 to 3CV, CA San Diego +3 to 4CV, CA Panama +1 to 1CV.] David Buckland - 11:25am May 20, 2001 PST (#675 of 692) Turn 11: June to August 1944 [Another lost initiative DR, which will enable the Japanese to move first, and bolster the weak or non-existent defences of Saipan.] With the East Indies and New Guinea fronts effectively paused by the monsoon, this leaves the Central Pacific. The bulk of the Japanese forces facing the Americans [9 blocks] are concentrated in the Carolinas, so Nimitz decides, despite the risk, to send the task force which recently conquered Kwajalein [3CV Essex, 4BB Iowa, 4CA, 3MA] against the more lightly-defended Saipan [4 blocks]. Time is pressing on the Allies, and progress has been slow, hence this hurried lunge. Otherwise, the Allies might have preferred to wait until the weather improved, and build up their forces in the meanwhile. In fact, while launching the probe at Saipan, the Allies have also been preparing for the future. The RN task force in NW Australia is girding its loins for a renewed attack on the Dutch East Indies; preparations have been made for a ground campaign in New Guinea (an Australian corps has been moved to Port Moresby); and the main USN fleet [3CV Essex, 2 x 3CV, 3BB South Dakota, 2 x 4CA] is at Kwajalein, from where it can attack a range of enemy targets (especially Truk and Saipan). Saipan turns out to be well-defended [2NA, 3AF, 3IN, 1GA], but despite the risk of heavy losses to their valuable task force, the Americans persist. They are not able to take Saipan, but the losses are much more in their favour than was feared [American 1BB, 1CA, 2MA; Japanese 2NA, 3AF, 2IN], and the garrison much weakened. Whether this will be sufficient progress remains to be seen. [Builds: British BB(Br) Broome +1 to 3CV, CA(Au) Darwin +1 to 3CV, AF(Au) Darwin +1 to 2CV; American SHQ +1 to 4CV, MA +2 to 3CV, CA Panama +3 to 4CV.] Turn 12: September to November 1944 [No change from the usual pattern: the Japanese win the initiative DR, and decide to move first. Typhoon is in Area 6, so no real effect. Japan: the Japanese face a dilemma - in the Central Pacific, moving first would enable them to shore up the defences of Saipan. On the other hand, in the East Indies, a weak outer defence needs the Japanese to move second, so that the reserves (mostly based in Borneo) could redeploy to the threatened sector. In the end, the Central Pacific was judged to be the more important strategically. The principal Japanese concerns, judged by their deployments, are for Saipan and Manokwari [10 & 8 blocks, respectively]. The Allies open their offensive with an Australian attack on Lae, which overwhelms the Japanese garrison. This is effectively a support operation for the main effort in the Central Pacific: an attack on Truk [with 2 x 3CV Essex, 3BB South Dakota, 4CA, 3MA, 4IN] with, compared to the earlier abortive attempt to conquer Saipan, a beefed-up landing force. The Japanese are present in similar strength to the Saipan campaign [3NA, 3AF, 3IN, 2IN]. Truk just survives, owing to the doggedness of the defending Japanese infantry [losses: Allies 2CA, 2IN; Japanese 3NA, 3AF, 4IN]. In one sense ­ that the capture of the base was frustrated ­ this is a replay of the earlier attack on Saipan ­ but this time around, the American fleet stays in place to blockade the Japanese (the decision to withdraw at Saipan previously being now seen as a mistake). With another powerful task force cruising to the northeast of Truk, the Americans are now looking increasingly threatening to the beleaguered Japanese. Meanwhile, a rejuvenated Anglo-Australian task force [4AF(Br), 3CV(Br), 3BB(Br), 3CA(Br), 3CA(Au), 3IN(Au)] successfully captures Batavia, with the Australian infantry once again performing yeoman service beating the small [1IN] Japanese garrison. To offset this success, an ill-conceived invasion of Thailand is easily repulsed [3IN(In) attack 2IN ­ the British give up after losing 2IN for no effect]. [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, CA(Br) Batavia +1 to 4CV, AF(Au) Darwin +1 to 3CV, IN(Au) Darwin +1 to 1CV; American CA Lae +2 to 4CV, MA Lae +1 to 3CV, CV Essex Panama +1 to 1CV, CA Panama +2 to 2CV.] David Buckland - 11:28am May 20, 2001 PST (#676 of 692) Turn 13: December 1944 to February 1945 [The Allies are still unable to win an initiative DR ­ quite what the odds are for the consistent Japanese record I do not know, but it must be something pretty remote (11 outright wins in 12 attempts, the other being a tie). In any event, the Japanese elect to move second.] The Allies arrange to keep the main enemy concentrations (at Manokwari and Saipan) busily occupied while they strike their main blows elsewhere. One Marine corps will be used to overwhelm the last vestiges of resistance on Truk, while the other, heavily escorted, attempts to invade Guam. Australian corps are also active, invading Hollandia and Palembang (the latter accompanied by the Anglo-Australian task force). The raids on Manokwari, mainly staged by the RAAF from Darwin, manage to tie down far larger enemy forces [3NA, 2CV, 1CV, 1BB Yamato, 1BB, 3CA, 2CA, 2IN], and this enables the Allies to attack Guam and Hollandia in reasonable safety [the Japanese attempt to resolve the pin, but are only able to reduce the Australians (who were careful not to target anything other than enemy aircraft) by 1 CV]. At Saipan, despite the fact that the defenders represent the cream of the remaining Japanese navy [2NA, 2AF, 2 x 2CV, 2SS, 1BB, 3CA, 1CA, 1IN, 1GA], the US actually have a small air superiority [3CV Essex, 2 x 3CV, 3BB Iowa, 2 x 4CA], and as has become customary, the Americans find the Japanese first, with dire consequences. [The Japanese land-based air does well in Round 1 to score three hits, but these are on the escorting cruisers. The American carrier strike on the Japanese task force is a devastating: seven hits, which basically decides matters. The IJN withdraw, losing their BB in the process, and leaving the land-based air to inflict some damage on the US, which they manage at the cost of their own destruction. Losses: Allies 2CV, 4CA; Japanese 2NA, 2AF, 2CV, 1SS, 1BB, 4CA.] The Americans decide, after the Japanese navy withdraws following this debacle, to stay, and blockade the island. Elsewhere, the tidings are uniformly miserable for the Japanese, as the Allies conquer Truk, Hollandia, Guam, and Palembang. Basically, after looking very strong for a long time, the Japanese empire in the Pacific is beginning to implode. Japan: the pinning of the Manokwari force was a heavy, and unanticipated, blow for the Japanese, who expected to be able to move this force freely. It is now out of position, too far to the south, while the Home Islands and Okinawa have few defences, following the annihilation of the fleet at Saipan. JVPs: 11 (Stalemate) [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, AF(Au) Darwin +1 to 3CV, IN(Au) Darwin +1 to 3CV, IN(In) Calcutta +2 to 3CV, IN(In) Burma +2 to 3CV; American CA Guam +1 to 4CV, MA Guam +1 to 3CV, CV Essex Panama +2 to 3CV, CA Panama +2 to 4CV.] Turn 14: March to May 1945 [The Japanese may be crumbling, but they still manage to win the initiative DR, deciding to go first ­ presumably to try to get their shattered defences into some sort of order, and withdraw what they can from South East Asia.] The enemy pull their forces back to defend the Home Islands, though garrisons are, probably perforce, left throughout South East Asia (presumably, mostly infantry that could not be evacuated). Iwo Jima is obviously held only by a blocking force [1 block], but more substantial forces [8 blocks] seem to be deployed to the southwest, barring American access to Kyushu. Weaker forces [3 blocks]to the southwest again stand between the Allies at Guam and Truk on the one hand, and Okinawa on the other, but dealing with these will naturally weaken any simultaneous thrust to the latter. In other words, it looks as if the Japanese may have done enough to block any immediate Allied invasion of either Okinawa or the Home Islands for the time being. The Japanese garrison of Formosa having long since been withdrawn (during the Japanese expansionary phase) and not replaced, the Americans decide to use one of their Marine Corps to invade it, passing through the Japanese naval screen, which turns out to be a paper tiger [1BB, 1CA, 1MA], and the vastly more powerful US task force [3CV Essex, 3BB South Dakota, 4CA] makes short work of these forces. The 2nd Marine Corps meanwhile also makes short work of winkling out the garrison of Saipan, which falls to the Americans. The British raid Singapore, but the withdrawal of landing craft to the more critical Central Pacific makes it impossible for them to follow up [ie. the SHQ moves were mostly used to move new US naval units to Guam this turn ­ South East Asia is effectively isolated with the fall of Formosa, and its PP of no use to the Japanese, whether or not actually held by the Allies]. The major clash is midway between Guam and Kyushu. The Japanese have a much stronger force than the Americans anticipated [3NA, 3AF, 2 x 2CV, 1CV, IBB Yamato, 1BB, 3CA, 2CA], the latter’s force being too weak, especially in escorts [3CV Essex, 2 x 2CV, 3BB Iowa, 4CA]. The result of Allied overconfidence and failure to abide by a previous cautious avoidance of major battle without friendly land-based air cover is a stinging defeat [Losses: Allies 2CV Essex, 6CV, 2BB Iowa, 4CA; Japanese 2CV, 3CA]. Whether this will be enough to preserve the Home Islands [and therefore no worse than an Allied Marginal Victory, from a Japanese viewpoint] remains to be seen. JVPs: 6 (Allied Marginal Victory: the remaining South East Asian PPs ­ Singapore, Manokwari, Borneo, Manila are cut off from Japan, and do not count towards the VP total). [Builds: British SHQ +1 to 4CV, BB(Br) Batavia +1 to 4CV; American CV Essex Saipan +2 to 3CV, AF Dutch Harbor +1 to 4CV.] David Buckland - 11:29am May 20, 2001 PST (#677 of 692) Turn 15: June to August 1945 [Finally, finally the Allies win an initiative DR ­ and it is an important one. They will now be able to pass through the hex between Guam and Kyushu (still occupied by the victorious IJN task force) in greater strength than had the Japanese been able to send in reinforcements (ie. land-based air). In addition, they should be able to pin the forces in Iwo Jima and Okinawa, thus they hope weakening the defences of Kyushu.] With a hiatus in South East Asia because of the monsoon, attention centres on the Japanese Home Islands and surrounding waters. Diversionary expeditions are mounted against Okinawa and Iwo Jima, to keep their respective garrisons occupied, and unable to reinforce more important battles elsewhere [the Okinawa force tries to unpin itself, but fails]. The IJN tries once more to block the American attack on Kyushu, but this time the balance of forces is hopelessly weighted against them [Allies 4AF, 2 x 3CV Essex, 1SS, 2 x 4CA; Japanese 3 x 1CV, 1SS, 1BB Yamato, 1CA]. The result, hardly unexpected, is a turkey shoot, in which the remaining bulk of the Imperial Japanese Navy is despatched without managing to scratch their opponents [all eliminated by land and carrier-based air before the Japanese even had chance to choose whether or not to stand or retreat]. The attack on Kyushu is an altogether chancier affair [Allies 3CV Essex, 3BB South Dakota, 4CA, 3MA; Japanese 3NA, 3AF, 1SS, 2CA, 3IN]. The result is something of a standoff [losses: Allies 1CV, 1BB, 2CA, 1MA (the Marines do not land); Japanese 1NA, 1AF, 1SS, 2CA], but Kyushu is effectively blockaded [though not out of supply]. With the atom bombs dropped, the capture of Iwo Jima by the Americans comes as a coda to the entire Pacific War, as Japan surrenders shortly afterwards. JVPs: 6 (Allied Marginal Victory). [Does the Allied blockade of Kure mean that the 2 VPs for the hex cannot be counted? If so, then the game is an Allied Decisive Victory, at 4 VPs. Rule 8.1 specifies that VPs are equal to supplied Japanese PPs, while 7.23 states that “Economic Centers must be in sea supply to provide PP. Like units, they must be able to trace one or two hexes back to a supplied major base, and then have a valid supply chain to a Home Base.” This could be taken to mean that a blockaded Japanese Home Base produces no PP, and therefore does not count for victory. However, we felt that a Home Base was in supply come what may, since otherwise the Allies would have little reason to invade Japan (as they planned to do historically), since blockading it would be cheaper, and just as effective (if interpreting the rules so that blockaded Japanese Home Bases do not count for VPs).] Post Mortem Hawaii would not get my vote as the best objective for any post-Pearl Harbor Japanese offensive, for reasons illustrated in this game during mid to late 1942 (Turns 4 & 5): it is very difficult to take against determined American resistance. There are alternative ways to realise this objective than that demonstrated in this game, where the Japanese spent possibly too much time preparing for the final assault. Perhaps a better approach is too blockade Hawaii first, then invade when the garrison has been suitably reduced (though whether the IJN can maintain naval superiority in Hawaii for long enough is a major question). One disadvantage is that the Japanese will not be able to use land-based air units, unless they take Samoa first, since Palmyra cannot be supplied from Kwajalein. On the other hand, between two relatively evenly-matched opponents, perhaps the main purpose of the Japanese post-Pearl offensive is to keep the Allies occupied and away from areas vital to the Japanese, in which case, Hawaii will do as well as any other ­ though I still feel it is too much of an either/or proposition: attacking India or Australia may yield some PP benefits, even if final conquest cannot be realised. Once the final Japanese offensives had been blunted (on Turn 7), it seemed to take an unconscionably long time for the Allies to get going: despite some minor bases being retaken, it was only with the fall of Kwajalein in Turn 10 that significant progress began to be made (if only because supply chains are dependant on major bases, so without capturing them, an attacker can only nibble at the periphery. Even then, it took until Turn 13 to breach the Carolines-Marianas line. This was despite the fact that the Japanese lost at least two critical combats decisively when they might have expected to do better (New Hebrides on Turn 7, and Saipan on Turn 13). This is out of a total of six major clashes involving air and naval units on both sides: Ellice Islands (Turn 4: the game’s equivalent of Coral Sea ­ the Japanese look like the winners in terms of attrition, but did worse than at first appears), Rabaul (Turn 10: another disappointing Japanese performance), Batavia (Turn 10: the Brits get a bloody nose), and the rebuff dealt to the overconfident USN on Turn 14. But if their combat record was not brilliant, the slow progress in pushing back the Japanese was at least in part due to their incredible success with the initiative DRs. Progress in PV is often influenced by the outcome of these rolls, since they can sometimes hand an opportunity to one side or the other to exploit a passing weakness, or maladroit positioning, by the opponent. In this game, for example, had the Allies moved first in Turn 14, most of the remaining IJN would have been trapped badly out of position in South East Asia, and the Home Islands could probably have been invaded successfully. As usual, not too many grand battles, which seems about right, but we still feel that the rule, clarified in Version 1.1, that British and American PP must be split, leads to an overactive Royal Navy. We think that it leads to a more historical game if the player decides whether or not to build up the British (rather than being forced into it, for want of any better alternative). It does shift game balance in the Allies’ favour, but we think it gives a better picture of the war, and the overwhelming US material superiority.