From: Kevin Zucker Subject: LGE Analysis by Peter Corless The Emperor's War (La Guerre de l'Empereur) 1805-1815 Analysis by Peter Corless Strategic Goals & Victory Conditions In the game, one can gain VPs through a) control of territory, b) conversion of Gold into VPs, c) creating of minor kingdoms, d) success in battle, and e) successful conclusion of war. The "VP economy" is interesting in that there are some countries who have a much easier time of achieving their VP conditions than others just based on what they have at start. Assuming the game does not change significantly from 1st edition, here's what people have at start and need to win in terms of VPs. Everyone starts with their power at 100 VP - their bid. With "assigned" powers, this get squirrelly, since everyone gets a bid of "zero." Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win France 450 25 10 35 310 -140 68.9% 485 +35 107.8% Britain 330 16 10 26 256 -74 77.6% 386 +56 117.0% Russia 320 18 9 27 262 -58 81.9% 397 +77 124.1% Austria 300 17 9 26 256 -44 85.3% 386 +86 128.7% Prussia 220 10 7 17 202 -18 91.8% 287 +67 130.5% Spain 175 8 5 13 178 +3 101.7% 243 +68 138.9% Turkey 175 7 5 12 172 -3 98.3% 232 +57 132.6% Win = This is how many VPs the country needs to win. Land = This is how many VPs the power earns from its provinces each year. Gold = This is if you take your annual income and convert it into the maximum VPs possible; i.e, do not build armies, fleets, etc. by 1810 = Assuming no war or random events, this is is how many VPs the country will earn by end of game in 1810. by 1815 = Assuming no war or random events, this is is how many VPs the country will earn by end of game in 1815. VP Gap = How far down from your Win goal you would be through this "peaceful" rate of VP accrual. As you can see, Spain could "win" automatically at this rate by 1810, and everyone has a chance to "win" by 1815. % Win = Victory is next calculated on what *percentage* you got to your VP goal. As you can see from this chart, Spain, Turkey and Prussia do the best coasting forward on their own momentum. France, Britain, Russia and Austria have to work to earn a victory. On an annual accrual basis, the table would look like this: France Britain Russia Austria Prussia Spain Turkey Start 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1805 135 126 127 126 117 113 112 1806 170 152 154 152 134 126 124 1807 205 178 181 178 151 139 136 1808 240 204 208 204 168 152 148 1809 275 230 235 230 185 165 160 1810 310 256 262 256 202 178! 172 1811 345 282 289 282 219 191 184! 1812 380 308 316 308! 236! 204 196 1813 415 334! 343! 334 253 217 208 1814 450! 360 370 360 270 230 220 1815 485 386 397 386 287 243 232 ! = The year when the neutral would likely win, based upon "inertia" of gathering maximum VPs from money and holding on to starting territory. This gives a spread of 1810-1814 as the normal timeframe for the game. It could go shorter or longer depending on how VPs are gained or lost by war. Spain loves peace, without conquest of minor neutrals, as it would stand to coast to victory soonest. Turkey would be next, capable of winning by 1811. France is least happy with this, as it would not win until 1814 at present rate. Britain and Russia likewise want to shake things up a little. Neutrals Control of various neutrals will give you a great boost to your basic economic and political condition to further victory, even without resort to direct warfare against the great powers. There are 20 VPs worth of Politcal Value neutrals on the board that are uncontrolled at start. Palestine has 1 and Egypt 4 points, nominally in the Ottoman Empire's sphere of influence. Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, worth 1 each, are up for grabs between France, Britain and Spain. Southern Italy, worth 5 between Rome and Naples, is naturally the battle ground for Austria and France. "Unclaimed" Germany is worth 3 betwen Oldenberg, Thuringia and Baden. Sweden has 3 and Norway 1 more. There are 48 Economic Value points available from all unclaimed neutrals at start, which can also be used to gain more VPs. Empire-Building: Rightful Claims over Neutrals If Turkey can presume to hold on to Egypt and Palestine for the game, which would change its "momentum" in the VP tables. Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Turkey 175 12 6 18 208 +33 98.3% 298 +123 170.3% Turkey would be more than happy to take these two minor powers and "sit and spin" for the rest of the game. Indeed, it would seem to win by 1809 if left unmolested at that rate. Spain, if it could gain control over Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, would look as follows: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Spain 175 11 6 17 202 +27 115.4% 287 +112 164.0% Not as grandiose, but still shows how a few minor neutrals can help make or break a game for even a modest power. It could also win on "momentum" alone by 1809. If Prussia was able to take northern Germany (Baden, Thuringia, Oldenberg, and Mecklenberg) and Denmark, this is how it would look: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Prussia 220 13 8 21 226 +6 102.7% 331 +111 150.5% Which puts them on track for a win as early as 1810. Austria, being in the middle of things, will never have this easy a job of it. Yet all Austria needs to do is to take Rome and Naples and they get: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Austria 300 22 10 32 292 -8 97.3% 452 +152 150.7% Austria could use this to achieve victory as soon as 1811. Russia would need to assert its supremacy over all Sweden and Norway to achieve similar results, and then would earn VPs as follows: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Russia 320 22 9 31 286 -34 89.4% 441 +121 137.8% Even having all Scandanavia does not satisfy the Czar's appetite until 1812. Meanwhile, Britain and France cannot do any better by getting more money. Already at start they can buy up to 10 VPs a turn year. Since 10 is the maximum one can purchase economically per year, more money wouldn't win them the game. Politically, Great Britain seems to be in the next toughest spot, because it needs to pick out where it will gain VPs based on territory it can hold militarily. More money means very little to it. (It starts with 85 Gold per turn, and the most you can turn into VPs is 55 Gold for 10 VPs.) Even if Britain bested the Russians and took Norway and Sweden, it would only do as follows: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Britain 330 20 10 30 280 -50 84.8% 430 +100 130.3% Britain, even with these neutrals is only on a pace to win by 1812. More dangerous is a Britain who believes the entire North African coast, from Tangiers to Cairo, should belong to him: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Britain 330 25 10 35 310 -20 93.9% 485 +155 147.0% Brittania would thereby win by 1811. If Britain could maintain all Scandanavia *and* North Africa, it could really be dangerous: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win Britain 330 34 10 44 364 34 110.3% 584 +254 177.0% This would put the Limeys into a win by 1810, assuming it could hold onto all of its territories. Keeping its choice provinces anywhere else on the continent, especially Portugal, might be near impossible for Britain to do, considering that if anyone really wanted to push their 5 corps (6 with the Portugese) into the sea, they could do it. Of course, out at sea, the Brits have some distinct advantages. Therefore, Spain begins as an important ally for Britain to have, to prevent risks to Portugal and Gibraltar. Spain, on the other hand, might want to know what's in it for them... Lastly, France. Even if France took all of neutral Germany and Italy (+8 points), it would only look like so: Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win France 450 33 10 43 358 -92 79.6% 573 +123 127.3% Sadly, Napoleon would see his empire cruise to victory by 1813, long after the British, Russians, Austrians, Prussians, Spanish and Turks would have made a victory lap. This, to the French, must not be allowed to happen. Seeing that negociations for all of these are unlikely to succeed, France will have to bludgeon its neighbors to secure what it needs. As well, France might do better to pour its resources into its military, and win the game based upon success in battle. See below for more regarding this... Empire-Building, Part 2: Changing the Map of Europe Besides moving in and taking control of neutrals, there are three special kingdoms which can be created through an amalgamation of various territory: Poland (Grand Duchy of Warsaw) 25 VPs All 5 of: Warsaw, Posen, Thorn (Pru), Galicia (Aus), Bialystock (Rus) Rhine Confederation 20 VPs Any 4 or more of 8: Bavaria, Saxony (Neu with Corps), Mecklenberg, Oldenberg, Thuringia, Baden (Neu, no Corps), Westfalia (Pru), Tyrol (Aus) Kingdom of Italy 15 VPs All 3 of: Piedmont, Venice (Neu), Illyria (Aus) Of all these constructs, Italy is the easiest to create theoretically. All Austria needs is Piedmont, and they could get 15 VPs for Italy. France, obviously, sees things from a different perspective. However, it would need to take Venezia and then force Austria to cede Illyria in a surrender. The Rhine Confederation is next, but it is a complete crap shoot for control of neutrals. Also, once created, it is "set" in terms of size. One cannot thereafter add more of your conquered neutral states to the Confederation. Instant VPs versus a larger state make for an interesting balance of greed versus, well, even greater greed. Poland is the most difficult of all, because it requires the ceding of exactly the right home provinces to be created. One could always be a bastard as Russia, and instead of surrendering Bialystock, offer something like Georgia or Taganrog instead... ("Arrgh!") For Prussia or Austria, these VPs would make for a very nice pot-sweetener. For France or Russia, they would definitely give bragging rights. The likelihood for any other power to create these minor kingdoms is small, so somewhere in the game, consider anywhere between 0 - 60 VPs can enter into the overall "game economy," most likely for the central landward powers. Empire-Building, Part 3: Whacking Your Neighbors The best way to earn VPs seems to be by going to war. However, here you are risking VPs you already earned for the chance to win more through the prosecution of battle and the successful surrender of one's enemies. Battles VPs are gained by battles on land and sea. Note that you only *gain* VPs through battles. You don't lose VPs for losing battles, but you do for losing wars by surrendering. Win Land Battle .5/enemy corps, round up Win Sea Battle 3 So, if you went into a battle against the *entire* 18 corps of the French army, you could win up to 9 VPs. If le Grand Armee pounces on all 14 corps of the Austrian army, they have a chance to gain 7 VPs. Great Britain only has 5 corps total, so who cares about beating up the Brits, really? For every "Winter" phase for economic VP gains, there are three campaign seasons. If one could defeat a large army twice or three times in a row, there's a good chance to gain well over 10 VPs a year. Large allied armies could easily generate 10 VPs a battle! Note that the VPs are won and lost based on the total corps *brought* to battle, not based on how much leaves. Also, if you have a lot of "shadow" corps, each with 1 or 2 divisions (not filled to 3), your opponent gains based upon number of corps, not based on actual size of army. You are just giving the opponent VPs. "Hmmm... Note to self: Ensure Russia and Turkey do a lot of fighting with 'hollow legions' to easily boost VPs in a phony war between us..." This is the one kind of loopy situation which can occur. I don't know if it will ever have the chance to develop in the game; I don't know that the pace of the game will allow for such a Machiavellian "phony war". However, to even enter a war takes VPs. So, you'll have to do a little return on investment (ROI) calculation. War Declaration of War -10 for declaring war on any number of powers Break Alliance -5 for breaking any number of alliances Surrender -5 Surrender Condition -5* Accept Surrender +5* Evacuating Provinces +PV** * Does not happen in every surrender, but there is a condition of surrender which can be chosen by victor which swaps an additional +5 gain to victor, -5 loss to surrendering power in VPs. ** You get VPs for evacuating each occupied home province of a surrendered power, equal to 1 VP per Political Point of the province. (Minimum of 1 VP per province.) Evacuating provinces is the equivalent of home territory occupied by the victor. It is where the big wins can be found. So, for instance, if you occupied all of Turkey except Constantinople before the Grand Vizier decided to give up, you would gain 11 VPs. If you chased Napoleon into le Vendee, and took the rest of France before he acquiesed to your superiority, you would gain 20 VPs! Russia would be worth 25 if the Czar surrendered only after retreating over the caucuses. However, that would require quite a spreading out of your army to occupy all the barren wasteland. The net-net of declaring war and having someone immediately surrender to you is a loss of 5 or 10 VPs, though it might gain you some other concessions such as territory (which could have VP gains over future Winter phases if you continue to hold them), money or rights of passage. I am sure there will be cases when a power will want to sue immediately for peace. However, peace proceeds war in the turn order, so you have to last for at least one season before you can sue for peace. Great Britain and France are therefore incented to be "aggressor" states. They will not likely win the game without a successful, bloody, drawn-out war in their plans. Even still, in their one turn of guaranteed warfare, they would do best by inflicting the maximum damage they can. For victory condition purposes, you really want to take the war to your opponent's home territory if possible. If the axioms of victory focus on the neutral powers and using them to "coast" to victory, the most likely fields of battle will be in Germany, Italy, Africa or Scandanavia. If the axioms of victory focus on defeat of the great powers themselves, then the plans for war expand to any nation's home territories. At some point, somewhere, on land or sea, guns will open up and battle will be joined. Total War The charts above took into account what would happen if a country was free to expend all of its income on VP gains in a turn. However, a second VP chart would take away all those "bought" VPs, and show what would happen solely based on accrual of one's starting Political Point from territories. Country Win Land Gold* Total/Year 1810** Gap % Win 1815** Gap % Win France 450 25 ? 25 250 -200 55.6% 375 -77 83.3% Britain 330 16 ? 16 196 -134 59.4% 276 -54 83.6% Russia 320 18 ? 18 208 -112 65.0% 298 -22 93.1% Austria 300 17 ? 17 202 -98 67.3% 287 -13 95.7% Prussia 220 10 ? 10 160 -60 72.7% 210 -10 95.5% Spain 175 8 ? 8 148 -27 84.6% 188 +13 107.4% Turkey 175 7 ? 7 142 -33 81.1% 177 +2 101.1% In this case, no one wins until Spain in 1814, or Turkey in 1815, except by means of combat and victory. In this scenario, the difference between what one earned through their own territories and what they needed to achieve to meet their Victory Condition goals would have to be made up through warfare. A typical "generic" war could look as follows: Declaration of War -10 Victory vs. 10 Corps +5 Victory vs. 8 Corps +4 Victory vs. 5 Corps +3 Occupied Provinces +6 --------------------------- Net Victory +8 For Spain, this type of victory would be a major coup. A couple of lucky wars like this, and it could cruise to victory in 1809. (Good luck!) However, Spain really shouldn't be declaring too many wars in the first place. It would much rather have someone declare war on it, then find a way to win a battle or two, then get a negociated settlement. It could still net +8 VPs this way, but not have to risk itself by making the declaration. If France had only one such minor but successful a war each year, they could take a military victory by 1815. They would rather get a victory in a "great war" as follows: Declaration of War -10 Victory vs. 16 Corps +8 Victory vs. 12 Corps +6 Victory vs. 10 Corps +5 Occupied Provinces +12 Surrender, Ally 1 +5* Surrender, Ally 2 +5* --------------------------- Net Victory +31 * Also results in a -5 VP to each opponent! If France could achieve a victory like this, for instance, against Prussia and Austria, or etc., then Napoleon would be happy to accept the overlordship of Europe by as soon as 1811. Likely sooner, because he would also probably recieve some Political Point gains from occupied minor neutrals, as well as ceded home provinces from his conquered foes. There will also likely be wars without profit, where those who declared them will first lose their declaration of war VPs, and then lose some or all of their battles to the opponent. In this case, you could seriously end up in the hole, as well as launch your opponent ahead of you in strategic terms if you are forced to surrender. Armies Max At Start Corps Corps Inf Cav Art Gar* Total** % Tot Field*** France 18 11 21 8 4 4 33 (37) 23.9% Austria 14 8 15 6 3 2 24 (26) 17.4% Russia 13 8 15 6 3 2 24 (26) 17.4% Prussia 9 7 15 4 2 1 21 (22) 15.2% Turkey 9 4 8 3 1 1 12 (13) 8.7% Spain 8 4 9 2 1 0 12 (12) 8.7% England 5+1 3+1 6+3 2 1 2 12 (14) 8.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------ 76 45 89 31 15 12 135 (147) * Infantry divisions in garrisons ** Mobile (total incl. Garrison) divisions *** Percentage of total field divisions (excl. garrisons) England's forces include Portugal, which has a Corps with 3 Inf Divs. During play, some additional neutrals can be brought into play: Neutral Armies State Corps Inf Cav Controlling Power at Start Holland 1 3 0 France Bavaria 1 3 0 Austria Saxony 1 3 0 Prussia Sweden 2 6 0 Uncontrolled Egypt 2 4 2 Uncontrolled Naples 1 3 0 Uncontrolled Poland 2 4 2 Uncontrolled & Unformed Minor country forces need to be "built." You have to create Poland politically before you can create any of its forces. One reason you would build up a neutral power before completing one's own home army would be to deny it to an enemy. Once you have created the minor neutral corps and placed it in your army, it cannot be created by another power even if they conquer the nation. (They become "Free Saxons" fighting for your side, for example.) These forces cannot be further built up by you until you regain control of the minor country, so you don't want to lose them; it is better for you to lose your own forces, which can be rebuilt under any circumstances. Any unbuilt or lost portion of the minor power can be built by the opposing controlling player. So if you build one Swedish corps, then lost Sweden, the other player could build the other Swedish corps. If you lost both Swedish corps, the player currently in control of Sweden could rebuild both corps. This might not be too large an imperative early in the game, but may become more important as armies start "maxing out" at crucial times of build-up. Only the neutral corps will help you get to a larger maximum army size. This means the maximum "mobilized Europe" would be 76 major power corps + 10 minor power corps = 86 x 3 divisions = 258 divisions in the field. Since the game starts with only 135 divisions in corps, one could say that Europe was 52% mobilized at start. This might be an interesting macrocampaign snapshot statistic to keep track of. Navies Majors Max At Start % At Start England 14 8 + 1 (Port) + 1 Transport 33.3% France 8 4 + 1 (Holl) 18.5% Spain 6 4 14.8% Russia 6 4 14.8% Turkey 4 2 11.1% Prussia 2 0 0.0% Austria 2 0 0.0% Denmark 1 1 Uncontrolled 3.7% Naples 1 1 Uncontrolled 3.7% Sweden 1 1 Uncontrolled 3.7% ----------------------------------------------------------- 45 24 (27)* * 24 are controlled, +3 uncontrolled fleets, for 27 total. This equates to an overall European fleet mobilization of 60%. Britain, with 9 squadrons of it fleet at its disposal at start, has to face 15 squadrons that can be amassed against it. Or 18, if the Danish, Swedish and Neopolitan fleets can be secured by others. Even if France, Spain and Russia combined, their odds are only 13 to 9, which are actually in Britain's favor. The naval rules are written for Britain to be able to go toe-to-toe tactically at up to 2-to-1 odds. Yet, once it starts losing squadrons to numerically superior forces things can rapidly go downhill. I am not good at high-level statistics and regression analysis, but a lucky Britain can likely go against the whole board if it had to for a while. (It would likely lose in the long run because it just couldn't outspend the entire rest of the board.) Britain is allowed pretty much free reign of the sea versus any one power, or even any two combined. If Britain pounces on a numerically weaker foe, the day is almost done for the hapless opponent. Britain begins with a +2 to all naval battle dice rolls. If it is superior in numbers, it gets to add +1 more. That's a +3 bonus on a 1 die roll. The opponent would have 1:12 odds of winning, 1:12 odds of having an exchange loss, and the rest of the time, Brittania rules the waves and sends you high-tailing back to port. If the odds are 2:1, Britain gets +4. At 3:1, +5, and if they are 4:1+ against any opponent, they are literally unstoppable. Summary What began as a quick analysis of the rules is rapidly turning into a magnum opus. Of course, everything stated above is premised on first edition rules. But with that, it seems like the game can become anyone's through a combination of warfare, economics and diplomacy. The biggest thing to keep track of is who is doing well in relation to their overall VP requirements. Just because a France or an England seems to have a tremendous advantage in armies or economies does not mean they are running away with the game. Also, as in Empires in Arms, early gains will mean the most. Later on, if you are winning, it will be much harder for your opponents to knock you down, because you are already "sitting" on victory points. There are many powers who will be near immune to substantive losses of their political point streams. First, look at how many minor neutrals a power maintains. Taking away minor neutrals will be the first way to rob them of an ongoing stream of victory points. Next, see if they can cede small, trivial provinces. A lot of powers can get rid of "1/0" provinces for a long while and still maintain a decent home state. Also see what they have for income. Britain will need to spend Gold to get VPs just to keep in the game. However, look and see if other people are doing really well, and socking away their Gold into VPs rather than into the defense of their lands. Over time, the amount of what someone needs to win will start becoming smaller and smaller. The variance of VP-based success in a game turn will start becoming crucial, and could cause what would in real life seem like arbitrary betrayals. Russia: Why are you leaving me out to dry? Aren't you going to move your troops forward? Prussia: Well, we think you can take Napoleon on his own. France: :: Cackles gleefully as the allies fall to bickering... :: I look forward to the actual 2nd Edition Rules showing up. This looks like it can be a lot of fun! -Peter Corless. Kevin ________________________________________________________________________ Operational Studies Group PO Box 50207 Baltimore, MD 21211 U.S.A. 1(410)367-4004 fax 1(208) 279-3354 http://www.NapoleonGames.com 'Highway to the Kremlin' now shipping!