From: "Einhorn, Brandon" Subject: Kings War - Play Aids Kings War - (COA ) - Play Aids by Brandon Einhorn Chart A - Probability of a given CRT result given the die roll modifier The top row is the die roll modifier The left column is the combat result [attacker loss/ defender loss] -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 2/0 27.8% 16.7% 8.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1/0 44.4% 41.7% 33.3% 25.0% 16.7% 8.3% 2.8% 1/1 25.0% 33.3% 41.7% 44.4% 41.7% 33.3% 25.0% 0/1 2.8% 8.3% 16.7% 25.0% 33.3% 41.7% 44.4% 0/2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 8.3% 16.7% 27.8% Chart B - Probability of winning a battle Winning is defined as inflicting more losses than received. A tie result counts as a loss because the attacker must withdraw. Cross reference the two (cavalry and infantry) net die roll modifiers to find the probability of winning the battle. Note that the table is symmetric, thus 2,0 is the same as a 0,2 The top row and the left column each represent die roll modifiers. A cavalry modifier +1 and an infantry modifier of +2 yields a 66% chance of success. -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -3 1.5% 3.2% 5.8% 10.2% 16.4% 24.5% 33.1% -2 3.2% 6.3% 10.4% 16.4% 24.3% 34.0% 43.8% -1 5.8% 10.4% 16.7% 24.5% 34.0% 45.1% 55.6% 0 10.2% 16.4% 24.5% 33.8% 44.2% 55.8% 66.1% 1 16.4% 24.3% 34.0% 44.2% 54.9% 66.0% 75.5% 2 24.5% 34.0% 45.1% 55.8% 66.0% 75.7% 83.6% 3 33.1% 43.8% 55.6% 66.1% 75.5% 83.6% 89.8% Chart C - Geographic locations with Ambuscade info, sorted alphabetically Basing Hampshire S minor -1 Berwick Northumberland N MAJOR Bristol Gloucester S MAJOR Carlisle Cumberland N MAJOR Chester Chester NW MAJOR Dover Kent S MAJOR Gloucester Gloucester S MAJOR Hull E York NW MAJOR Ipswich Suffolk E minor -1 London Middlesex S MAJOR Manchester Lancashire N minor Newark Nottingham M MAJOR Newcastle Northumberland N MAJOR Norwich Norfolk E minor -1 Oxford Oxford S MAJOR Pembrooke Pembrooke Wales MAJOR Plymouth Devon S MAJOR Portsmouth Hampshire S MAJOR Preston Lancashire N minor Reading Berkshire S MAJOR Scarborough N York N minor Sherborne Dorset S minor Shrewsbury Shropshire W minor Worcester Worcester W minor -1 York N York N MAJOR Kent E Revolt Norfolk E Revolt Chart D - Geographic locations with Ambuscade info, sorted by region North Carlisle Cumberland MAJOR Manchester Lancashire minor Preston Lancashire minor ScarboroughN York minor York N York MAJOR Berwick Northumberland MAJOR Newcastle Northumberland MAJOR North West Chester Chester MAJOR Hull E York MAJOR Middle Newark Nottingham MAJOR West Shrewsbury Shropshire minor Worcester Worcester minor -1 Wales Pembrooke Pembrooke MAJOR East Ipswich Suffolk minor -1 Norwich Norfolk minor -1 Kent Revolt Norfolk Revolt South Reading Berkshire MAJOR Plymouth Devon MAJOR Sherborne Dorset minor Bristol Gloucester MAJOR Gloucester Gloucester MAJOR Basing Hampshire minor -1 Portsmouth Hampshire MAJOR Dover Kent MAJOR London Middlesex MAJOR Oxford Oxford MAJOR Chart E - Probability of result or less/more 2 3% 100% 3 8% 97% 4 17% 92% 5 28% 83% 6 42% 72% 7 58% 58% 8 72% 42% 9 83% 28% 10 92% 17% 11 97% 8% 12 100% 3% beinhorn@nomurany.com