The following article was written and submitted by Mark Herman *before* the actual ground war started in the Middle East. Some of the parallels between Mark's predictions and what actual happening are striking. Mark Herman is a noted wargame designer and military analyst. Among his long list of credits is the game GULF STRIKE by Victory Games, which is now in its Third Edition printing which includes an expansion module covering the Kuwait War . ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The Last 36 Hours? by Mark Herman circa 5 February 1991 Copyright 1991, Mark Herman, All Rights Reserved Note: All dates and times are fictional and used for dramatic purposes only. It has been almost two weeks since Kuwait City was liberated by US Marine, Airborne, and Arab forces. Mopping up operations still continue but a sympathetic population has helped root out even the most ardent Iraqi units. The Emir's "I have returned" speech promised a new era in cooperation and respect between the Kuwaiti government and their people. Throughout the ground offensive that began on February 16th, Iraqi radio continued to fling invective rhetoric while Iraqi artillery delivered a deadly mix of HE and chemical munitions. The cost in lives has been high. Words and artillery were insufficient to stop an Allied war machine that swiftly penetrated and isolated Iraqi forward positions. The initial ground successes gave an early sense that victory would be achieved in the end. There were some mistakes and short-lived Iraqi successes, but after two weeks of conflict the Kuwaiti government was once again seated in Kuwait city. As Allied forces closed on the original Kuwaiti border, the UN sent out its call for negotiations and for an end to the fighting. Saddam Hussein, through Baghdad radio, declared that the war would never end and that this was only the end of the beginning. Many Arab countries such as Algeria and Iran have offered to mediate, but the diplomatic situation remained stalemated. March 14th, 0900 Eastern Standard Time (EST) The UN secretary general called for the Security Council to declare a unilateral ceasefire and a halt to the ground forces, now that Kuwait had been liberated. March 14th, 1100 EST Iraq reiterates that the fighting in the region can only end with an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories. March 14th, 1500 EST The US and the UK declare that there can be no linkage between the liberation of Kuwait and the other long standing grievances within the region. They also stated that after the war had been concluded they would call for a Middle East conference to discuss and settle all regional issues. The French, Soviet, and Chinese governments called for talks to begin in Geneva with no pre-conditions now that the UN resolution had been enforced. There has been increasing criticism of the US for exceeding its mandate to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait by force. Many nations led by the Soviet Union and PRC, cite the huge amounts of damage to the Iraqi civil sector and the hardships this placed on innocents, such as children, who have been without fuel oil, water, food, and proper medical care since early February. There have been reports of epidemics that have claimed large numbers of very young and very old Iraqi civilian lives. On top of these concerns the entire world community has condemned the damage done to the atmosphere by over 300 Kuwaiti oil wells that are on fire and out of control. Iran, India, and Pakistan have protested against the continuation of the war which has prevented a comprehensive solution to this problem. Most of the pollution generated by the oil fires has fallen upon these Southwest Asian countries. Environmental experts remain in violent disagreement as to the long term effects of this pollution on the world's climate. March 14th, 1800 EST Iraqi Republican guard units attacked US armored units near the Kuwaiti border and were repulsed with heavy losses. Chemical munitions were used in the attack. In a separate incident two SCUD missiles were fired at Israel. One landed in the sea while the other was successfully intercepted by a Patriot missile. No casualties were reported. March 14th, 2000 EST Confused reports of a SCUD missile striking Western Saudi Arabia near an oil terminal are as yet unconfirmed but the origin of the strike is believed to be the Sudan. Baghdad radio declares the Middle East will be drenched in blood and that the infidel forces will be repulsed. Many analysts fear that this might signal a potential widening of the war. March 15th, 0100 EST It appears that the SCUD missile fired at Western Saudi Arabia has done little damage and no casualties are reported. Palestinian riots in Gaza and the West Bank call for the withdrawal of US forces from the region and call on Baghdad to send more missiles. March 15th, 0800 EST The UN condemns Sudan's role in aiding Baghdad and calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and support of Iraqi forces positioned in the Sudan. Egypt warns the Sudanese government that any aggression, no matter what colors the belligerents are flying, will be dealt with very forcefully. March 15th, 0900 EST Iran announces that the Iraqis will come to a Geneva conference if there are no pre-conditions. Baghdad radio states that the war was unnecessary and could have been avoided if the UN would have agreed to these conditions back in January. Saddam Hussein declares a unilateral ceasefire. March 15th, 1500 EST The US and the UK veto a UN resolution to accept the Iranian peace initiative. Syria declares that it is withdrawing from the coalition unless a serious diplomatic effort is launched to end the conflict. Many voices from within the Egyptian government are voicing similar sentiments. March 15th, 1900 EST Violent riots are suppressed in Cairo with loss of life. Mubarak calls for calm and declares that large assemblies are prohibited. The Egyptian government declares its solidarity with the coalition. March 15th, 2000 EST An emergency session of the UN Security Council is called with the US and the UK reluctantly endorsing a ceasefire and a call for negotiations without pre-conditions. Many analysts state that the US acquiescence is based on their perception that the coalition is fragmenting now that the original UN mandate has been enforced. March 15th, 2100 EST During an internationally broadcast interview, Saddam Hussein was asked how he felt about his defeat in Kuwait and the heavy loss of life. Did he feel that he had gained from the war despite the horrific damage suffered by his country? Saddam answered, "I'm still here", then he smiled!