From: Paul Smith Subject: Re: SPI The Next War Gary H. Wishik wrote: > > interested in photocopies of MOVES or other articles that > amended/improved this game, especially any variation for the CRTs. > Thanks...Gary Attached is an article I wrote for Battleplan magazine many years ago that never got published. The article also included some graphs that aren't here. I still have to figure out how to get them here in the correct format so you can use them. I'll try, though.... -- Paul F. Smith mailto:psmith@ftw.mot.com "Exercise is wonderful. I could sit and watch it all day." - Larry Niven --------------------------------------------------------------------------- REFINING NEXT WAR Well, finally! The entrenched West German 11th Mechanized Division, which you (as the Warsaw Pact player) surrounded in Bremen three turns ago, has run out of ammunition. After beating your army, and your head, against this brick wall you now have a chance to destroy him. The die roll modifiers are now in your favor, you bring in some air support to get one more column shift and then you roll the die......What! You lose another (your sixth) division? You're the Nato Player and the sheer number of Warsaw Pact air squadrons has destroyed all but one of your F15 units thru attrition. It is now time to place your aircraft. Of course, you'll stack an F4 (attacks at 8) with the F15 (attacks at 18) to absorb any losses, thus keeping your F15 intact; although you really don't expect to lose anything with such a strong force. It's now time for battle and your enemy has sent up two Mig23's (rated 12) to meet your threat. As luck would have it you abort, losing your F4. Upon examining what went wrong (after all, the odds were in your favor), you discover that your odds would have been even better if the F15 were sent alone! An F15 vs two Mig23's better than an F15 with an F4? You start losing your faith in the tables by now. After spending valuable time using your naval units to place level 6 mine fields in strategic locations, you later realize, thru experience, that a ship has a greater chance of being sunk on a level 5 mine! That does it! It's not worth spending 3 hours per turn just to be frustrated by warped tables spoiling intelligent moves. Sadly, you fold up the game and put it on the back shelf. The previous examples are not all that uncommon during the play of The Next War. It is apparent that someone did not do his homework. However, the game has so much potential, and can be so much fun to play, that these must be salvaged. Actually, the tables aren't unusable. They work most of the time. But they don't work often enough to make you want to give up. It is because of my desire to make this game work and Michael W. Phelp's article in MOVES 53 about continuous CRT's that this article was written. The Next War was a game that cried out for new innovative tables. This is a perfect opportunity to see how well the continuous CRT works. While on the subject of improvements, I have also included some new air-to-air combat rules and naval rules. Somehow the naval rules just seem out of place when compared to the state-of-the-art rules (even by todays standards) found throughout the rest of the game. See also the discussions in Moves 41 and 42. Also, several unofficial comments and clarifications will be given regarding several different topics. Before continuing with the new rules and charts, I would like to point out how my continuous CRT differs from Mr. Phelp's. This one runs from 11 to 66. Two dice are rolled with one being the first number (the most significant digit) and the other being the second number (the least sigificant digit). There are thus 36 possibilities. I chose this method because 1) different tables aren't needed for each die roll modifier and 2) a die roll modifier (DRM) of +1 in a normal CRT (ie. one using a single die of 1 thru 6) can be translated into a DRM of +1 for the most significant die (eg. a 23 becomes a 33 with a DRM of +1). The only other thing that needs to be known in order to use these tables is how to count in base 6 (please, don't turn to a new article - if you can play The Next War, you can certainly count in base 6). Actually, the best way to count is to count along the die roll axis (Y-axis) of the tables. Thus the sequence becomes 11,12,13,14,15,16,21,etc (Note: 21 should be read as "two-one" not "twenty-one"). LAND COMBAT CRT Compare the Attack Strength of the Friendly unit with the Defense Strength of the Enemy unit(s) expressing the result as a ratio. Find this ratio on the bottom row of the CRT. Roll two dice expressing the result as a two digit number with each die representing one of the digits. Locate this row on the ratio column and read the combat result. In cases where the result rests on a border between two results, roll a die to determine which result to use. Each column shift adds 1 to the combat ratio (eg. 2.37 plus one column shift results in a final ratio of 3.37). Each of the DRMs listed in 7.4 adds 3 to the dice result (eg. a roll of 21 plus 3 DRMs results in a final result of 34). If the modified dice roll falls between 14 and 63, inclusive, the new cadre ratings are revealed. This is shown by the solid bar on the left of the table. Any roll lower than 11 is a "D" result while any roll greater than 96 is an "A2". The first thing that needs to be done to improve The Next War is to design a new CRT for land combat. It may seem odd that each DRM adds only 3 to the dice instead of the 6 as discussed earlier (ie. adding 6 to the result is the same as adding 1 to the most significant die). This is because the original table did not use a 1 to 6 die roll but a 2 to 12 summation of two dice. On examining an odds vs. modifier table, such as the one in Moves 42 (which has incorrect entries, by the way), it becomes apparent that nominally each DRM changes the odds by 3 out of 36. Also note that 1-2 DRMs correspond to approximately one column shift. This is true in the new CRT as well. A close comparison of the two CRTs will show that their odds will differ as the DRM becomes large, This is desirable since this is where the original CRT fell apart. AIR to AIR CRT The group combat rating is determined by adding together the attack strengths of all the squadrons in the group. After both players find their group combat rating, the net combat differential is found by subtracting the enemy combat rating from the friendly combat rating. Both players roll 2 dice, expressing the result as a number from 11 to 66. The result obtained by cross-indexing the dice roll with the appropriate combat differential is applied to the enemy air group. Both players roll and apply results simultaneously. The side with the most casualties is aborted (count a step damaged = 1/2 step lost). If both sides have the same casualties, roll a die to see which side aborts. Pilot ratings may be used to modify the dice roll by 6 for each DRM (eg. 25+6=35). In using this table, players may notice two effects. First is that losses will be about 10% lower. This was done mainly to allow the air game to go on longer. In all the games I've played, there hasn't been much of any air game at all by GT10. If players feel that a modern air war in Europe will be very short and bloody, add 3 to the dice roll. The second major change was to remove the "designed in" Nato favoritism. Again this was done to help balance the air game. If you wish to include this add 3 to the Nato dice roll. The major problem with the existing tables, however, deals with averaging the group's combat rating. This becomes apparent when groups of different sizes have combat with each other. Giving the larger group a more favorable table helps, but it many cases it pays to remove a squadron to give the smaller group a higher average rating. It just doesn't make sense to get better results by holding back firepower. With the new table, the more squadrons you have, the more damage you can do. The new table also splits the columns into smaller increments. The broad columns of the original table only aggravated the problem of averaging the squadron ratings. FLAK SUPPRESSION The Sept '79 errata attempted to solve this problem. The result obtained, however, is less than optimum. Look at the original table. You have the greatest chance of suppression with an attack strength of 5. Not only that, but a strength of 4 has the same probability of success as a strength of 6! The new table is much more reasonable. I increased the odds of success at higher attack strengths to give players more incentive to use suppression. Previously, the odds of success were so poor, that it wasn't worthwhile risking the flak. Either individual units or a group of up to 3 units (Ground Support strengths are additive) may perform this mission. A given unit may be the object of several attacks in 1 turn. The continuous CRT is not really needed here since the attack strengths are integers. If players wish, they can use the original 2-12 table by changing the entries shown below: column 3: move the 'S' from a roll of 5 to a roll of 6. column 4: move the 'S' from a roll of 7 to a roll of 6. column 5: move the 'S' from a roll of 4 to a roll of 5. column 6: add an 'S' result to a roll of 5 AIR to GROUND CRT Actually, the original table is correct. The only real advantage to the new table is due to splitting the columns into integer increments. All the +/-1 DRMs translate to +/-6 modifiers (ie. +/- 1 to the most significant die). Either individual units or a group of up to 3 units (Ground Support strengths are additive) may perform this mission. A given hex may be the object of several attacks in 1 turn. NAVAL CRT NAVAL CRITICAL HIT The Naval CRT can greatly benefit from expanding the columns to integer increments. Increments of 10 are just too coarse to simulate the effect of adding a PT boat to an existing task force. This chart is read alittle differently from the others and is best described by an example. On a differential of 15, a dice roll of 13 thru 66 will cause an EW0 unit a step loss. A roll of 23 thru 66 will cause a step loss to an EW1 unit; 31 thru 66 for an EW2 unit; 36 thru 66 for an EW3, etc. If a casualty is obtained on the Naval CRT then an additional roll is made on the Critical Hit chart. This chart is read in the same manner as the Naval Combat table. More will be discussed on naval combat later. MINE CRT SWEEP RESULTS TABLE This is probably an area where you haven't heard of any problems. A close look at the Mine Results table reveals, however, that a ship has a greater chance of sinking with a level 5 mine hex than with a level 6 mine hex! The new table corrects this. As in the Flak Suppression table a continuous CRT isn't really needed because of the integer mine level increments. If players wish to use the original 2-12 table, they make make the following changes to correct it: column 1: add an 'S' result to a roll of 2. column 2: add an 'S' result to a roll of 4. column 5: delete the 'S' results from a roll of 7. column 6: move the 'S' from a roll of 4 to a roll of 6. There is really nothing wrong with the original Sweep Results table. It is included here for completeness. It does, however, provide an instant glimpse into how the odds change as the sweep differential increases. Note that a sweep differential of -1 produces a 50% chance of passing a mine. SPECIAL FORCES This is the last table which I feel should be changed. The change is minor and involves changing the B column, die roll 4 result from a 1 to a 2. Without this, B flak has the same probability of a casualty as C flak. The new table places the B flak between the A and C flak. RULES Even when using the latest errata (Sept '79), it will soon be realized that there are several areas that are not explained well or do not fit in well with the overall game system. As these points are subject to interpretation, I will present an unofficial clarification players can use if they cannot agree on their own. I will also present changes which aid in play. Counters: The defense strength of all the WP mechanized regiments should be 2 (see Moves 42). Division bases, HQs, marine regiments, airborne regiments, and tank regiments are not changed. MAP: The road in C0129 can be considered to go off map for supply purposes. C2701/C2601 is a major river hexside. C1012/C1112 should not have a bridge. NE1221 is all shallow water. N3424/N3525 should be blocked. N3728/N3828 is an ocean hexside, not a major river hexside. It should be blocked. Ignore rough-1 terrain in all hexes that also have urban (such as C3827) or city (such as C4721) terrain. The Putlach Trenches (C3528) are considered Alpine hexsides. 5.17 (change) DRM due to rivers ARE cumulative. Thus a unit in a city being attacked across a major river has a DRM of +6 due to terrain. 7.3 (clarification) When disengaging from more than 1 unit, use the combined attack strengths of all the non-phasing units which are in Tactical Mode. Use the worst cadre, worst supply (units without Ammo cannot participate) , worst fatigue, total of steps lost, and chemical or EW effects if any of the attackers have them. There are no Wave Assault benefits. 7.33 (clarification) Units that are out of General Supply or, when using Organic Supply, out of Ammo cannot prevent Enemy units from disengaging from their ZOC. 7.4 (addition) M. Assault Engineers (see Case 13.8). N. First Turn Benefits (see Scenerio rules). 7.5 (addition) See 13.51 for combat against non-combat units. 8.0 (addition) Supply cannot be traced thru chemical contaminated hexes (see 18.56). Also, the supply length IS affect by movement penalties incurred by any Air-to-Ground attacks (see 21.48). 8.21 (clarification) WP supply may trace thru any friendly HQ. 8.34 (addition) "When a FSH is alone or stacked with an RR regiment ...." (see 13.75). 8.42 (clarification) A Fuel-1 marker is placed only if the unit is out of supply at the beginning of a Friendly Movement and Combat Phase. 8.45 (correction) This only applies to NATO units. WP units may initiate combat even though they are out of Ammo (however, 8.46 then applies). 9.1 (addition) Support units (except HQ) have a cadre rating of 5 12.14 (comment) After reading Moves 41 and 42 and examining the existing games of the Central Front series, players may want to include the 4th regiment when each WP division breaks down. Armored divisions have 3 tank regiments and 1 mechanized regiment while a mechanized divisions have 1 tank regiment and 3 mechanized regiments. However, the resulting combat values of the component regiments are too great when compared to the parent division. Thus it is recommended that the breakdown remain as specified in the original rules. It can be assumed that units of the 4th regiment have been attached to the other 3 units. 12.14 (change) Mechanized regiments have a defense of 2. It affects the following units: 13B15 (Soviet Mechanized) 3D2 11C12 (Polish Mechanized) 2D2 10B12 (Soviet 2nd Line Mechanized) 2D2 10C12 (Hungarian or Czech Mechanized) 2D2 9C14 (East German Mechanized) 2D2 12.16 (change) Only two French airborne regiments are required to form the 11th Airborne division. 12.58 (change) The French 11th Airborne has two brigades and a division base which appear on GT1. These may form into the 9C9 division. The third brigade which appears on GT8 is an independent formation. It may be used as a spare if one of the others is destroyed. 13.11 (addition) Soviet Assault Engineers are also considered brigade size formations. 13.27 (clarification) When stacked with a combat unit and the unit loses a step, the artillery also losses a step. 14.82 (addition) West German 1-2's and 0-2's can also be placed in West German City hexes. 15.3 (clarification) Not applicable to losses due to Air-to-Ground attacks. Also, each nationality keeps track of its own replacements. 17.23 (clarification) WP units may still attack even though they have no ammo points to expend (8.46 still applies, however). 17.7, 8.21, 13.28, 21.5, 21.6 (clarification) Units with A and B flak rating and all ADA units expend Flak Ammo each time flak is fired even if in General Supply. Artillery expend Ammo Points each time they fire, even if in General Supply. While Soviet Divisions gain Ammo Points only one at a time (and expend Ammo Points only while out of General Supply), artillery units replenish all Ammo Points when in General Supply. All Flak Points are also replenished if in General Supply. If supply is interdicted, use 10.1 to determine division equivalency. However, supply interdiction as no effect on Flak resupply. 18.73 (change) No-ZOC markers placed due to chemical warfare should not be removed until the beginning of the next WP movement phase. This allows airfields to be rendered useless for 1 turn. 20.53 (clarification) In the third sentence, "remaining" means those who have not yet fought. 20.6 (clarification) In the fourth sentence, "remaining" means those left in the interception level. 21.0 (addition) During an Enemy Movement and Combat phase, a Friendly air unit may also perform a Flak Supression mission (see 21.39). 21.54 (change) Soviet divisions acquire all their Flak Ammo the moment they are in General Supply. See 17.7 above. 22.31 errata (change) When air or helicopter units are the sole defenders of an airfield, use only the DRM for terrain and +5 for the Cadre rating. 22.35 (addition) Transports may also use a captured airfield after it has been repaired (see 34.24). 24,25,26 (change) The Naval system results in some very unusual situations. I believe the following changes improve the situation. Enemy ships CAN occupy hexes containing friendly ships in which case they undergo a Primary Search if unspotted. If they are spotted already then the friendly stack automatically spots them. An enemy unit may thus get searched twice by the same units: once when entering the search zone and once in the friendly occupied hex. Combat can occur in an adjacent hex (per normal Naval combat rules) or in the hex occupied by both units. After a round of combat, the phasing player may continue to move out of the hex if he satisfies the criterion allowing disengagement (26.4). They are considered spotted. After a round of combat in the occupied hex, the non-phasing player may disengage from the enemy occupied hex by moving TWO hexes using the normal disengagement criterion. 24.85 (change) Land units do NOT block ships from occupying the coastal hexes. However, land units may not amphibious assault a hex occupied by enemy units. See Moves 42 for another viewpoint. 26.72 (addition) Unsubmerged submarines are treated in all respects as a regular surface boat but with a defense of 1 and only 1/2 of its EW rating. 27.0 (change) Naval Air units can pick any ship in the stack to fire on. However, the EW used is that of the best unit in the entire stack. Exception: if the air unit chooses to fire on a submerged submarine, only the submarines EW rating is used regardless of what else is in the stack. Enemy ships within range (1 hex) get to fire flak first, then the friendly air unit gets to fire. Air units always fire last regardless of who moved first in that phase. 28.43, 34.12 (addition) The port must be undamaged to resupply mines. 29.14 (addition) A division base is lost only if the naval unit is sunk. 29.32 (addition) If a ferry hex is mined, passage is prohibited if the mine level is 4 or greater. If the mine level is 3 or less, the unit must roll on the Mine Results Table. One step is eliminated and the unit may not pass on an "S" result. This came from Moves 42. 30.24 errata (clarification) WP divisions with A or B flak which are out of Flak Ammo still have a range of 0 hexes when firing at helicopters even though they are considered C flak (see 21.53). 30.3 (addition) Helicopters can also attack Enemy units alone via case 30.13. Air Example (change) Page 31, 3rd column, Special Forces Helicopter Mission: The B flak cannot be used since it has a 0 hex range against helicopters (see 30.24). Page 32, 3rd column, 2nd paragraph: Soviet divisions have a range of 0 hexes against helicopters, even when out of Flak Ammo (see 30.24 errata). 41.51 (clarification) Ignore the fact that Kalingrad cannot base SU19 and SU17 for this scenerio only. 41.69 (clarification) The statements regarding ferries and supply routes are only in affect after Denmark surrenders. 42.53 (correction) The USA SAM site is located at C1224, not C1325. 42.53 (clarification) The Special Forces setup in C2129 even though there is no air field there. They must be picked up (1 mp) and transported to an airfield before they can be used. 43.51 (clarification) There should be no "*" on the MiG21 at Grossenhain Air Field (#9). 43.52 (clarification) Kothen Air Field is #13. 43.53 (clarification) The Special Forces setup in C0805 even though there is no air field there. They must be picked up and transported to an airfield before they can be used. 43.54 (correction) The British flak arriving at GT8 is rated B-1. 43.61, 44.61 (change) The reference to 42.77 should be 42.75. 44.73 Note (change) The reference to 50.0 should be 48.0. 45.41 (change) GT2 Hungarian: the reference should be 14.33, not 14.32. 45.42 (comment) Although the given reinforcement schedule is no doubt out of date, it is recommended that it be used unless the revised schedules for all the NATO and WP nations can be obtained. Mobilization schedules are constantly being revised. 45.51 (clarification) Czech: Zatec (#31) Air Field cannot base the Mig21's. However, they may still be allocated on the Air Display during the first turn of any scenerio. 45.55 (change) The reference to 45.46 should be 45.56. 45.56 (correction) The Harrier unit appearing in GT15 is rated 2-4-3, not 1-4-3. 46.22 (correction) Danish naval units are setup in either Odense or Kobenhaven Port Holding Boxes. 49.6 (addition) Include 40.65 and 40.66. 50.12 (clarification) unless stated otherwise, surrendering aircraft can be used by neither side. 50.61 (addition) On a die roll of 1, French ZOC do not extend across the border. On a die roll of 4-6, case 49.53 is active. 51.21 (die roll of 1-2), 51.71 (addition) The affected units also cannot be used as a wave assault benefit, support units cannot be used and they cannot be used to keep NATO units from disengaging. MISCELLANEOUS DISCUSSIONS Other pertinent documents include the last Errata (Sept '79 - this is necessary to tie up most of the loose ends in the game) and F&M #27 (for a good overview). MOVES 41 contains a discussion of the game along with interviews of the individuals involved with the design. MOVES 42 illustrates the problems with the CRT along with a discussion of the Baltic Scenerio. It also contains some optional rules concerning coordination between land and naval aircraft. MOVES 45 contains a flawed playthru of the Baltic Scenerio by our British friends. MOVES 46 contains a discussion of Airborne operations along with more optional rules governing supply by air transport. Finally, MOVES 54 contains even more optional rules governing new technologies such as AWACs and Stealth aircraft. Some of these discussions are more useful than others, but the serious NEXT WAR student would do well to complete his library by obtaining these. CONCLUSION Players using these new tables will be relieved of the feeling that the system is working against them. They're fair, reward intelligent moves, and improve play balance. The rule additions and interpretations add realism and provide a first pass at settling some of the inconsistencies that appear after several playings.