Bruce Costello - Jul 16, 2007 12:20 am (#355 Total: 367) Stefan Federsel Has Returned From The Gulag! PLANNING THE UNTHINKABLE I'm sure some players are squemish about using the Nukes, while others are absolute incendiaries. I don't take any position one way or the other, except to say they are in the game because they WERE a huge factor historically. When I noted that many starting Dropshot players often go for the nukes very quickly and without contemplation, I added the optional Tournament rules, which rewards play over several (at least three) games with + Victory Points and debits players who suffer collapse of their side due to nuclear destruction with - victory points. The intent is to imbue a bit of discipline and deeper thought into planning one's games. Yes, planning - to my mind about half the fun of the game itself! The first turn is always the most complex and slowest to play, yet likely the most decisive on the course of the game. Without the nukes, Dropshot plays much quicker. But they are there and, as I indicated, that's simply the history. Learning nuclear strategy vis the game and how to use it needn't be an excruciating and will offer lively new dimensions of play and thought. Remember - this is paper and cardboard - we don't want to experiment with nasty stuff like this on a living world, now do we? So I'm going to offer up a sample of planning for a scenario. One that is fairly closely balanced is the 1976 scenario. That is, balanced on paper, though I admit the Soviets have certain sizable advantages on this one. So what follows below is a plan for a Soviet surprise nuclear attack on the United States. By The Way - this makes for an excellent short training scenario! Bruce Costello - Jul 16, 2007 12:56 am (#356 Total: 367) Stefan Federsel Has Returned From The Gulag! Game set up, situation, rules used. The 1976 scenario allows the Soviet player to take either a conventional (attack Germany on a weekend) or nuclear option (strike with no warning). Rules recommended used, set up situations and important facts are presented below. 1. The Allied player sets up first and moves second. This gives the Soviets the advantage of deploying his forces and fixing his strikes for maximum effect. 2. Due to total surprise, the Allied player may not attempt to pre-empt prior to game turn two in this scenario (think this is the only scenario with that rule). 3. The Soviets have the 'Magic Marker' (crypto intelligence advantage), so no Allied preemption there either. 4. I choose to use all optional rules EXCEPT Strategic Doctrine. This is me - but once you get the swing of nuclear strategizing, that rule adds an additional dimension of realism, authenticity, and danger. I recommend it for advanced players. 5. The Allies roll on their scramble table AFTER the Soviets place their attacking forces on target and before they roll. This is an Allied advantage and is due to good radar and command control, plus the efficiency of SAC, and has been a key feature of American strategic capabilities since the 1960's. Thus, a certain percentage of Soviet attacking forces will be wasted, depending on the Scramble die roll. # SCRAMBLE table is used only used once per game, and only on the first phase either player fires nukes. Thereafter, forces are what they call 'fully generated' - bombers have dispersed to freeways, submarines at sea, and land missiles are mostly fired, can be fired (undetected in surviving silos due to intense fog of war). 6. An excellent way for the Soviets to get a favorable DRM (die roll modifier) against the Allied Scramble Table is to first take out the U.S. National Command Authority (or NCA) - represented in the game as two sites, the White House and Norad. This can be done during the first player Unconventional Phase, which preceeds firing the missiles. 7. SEQUENCE OF PLAY - a players Strategic Phase: 1. Unconventional Phase - Soviets may attempt to use commandos, Biowar, and FOBS (basically, a secretely orbited satellite nuke, dropped with only a couple minutes warning on a high value target, such as an NCA). The Allied player has a couple of decapitation options beginning in the 1983 scenario. 2. First Missile Phase - Second player can attempt to preempt usually, though not in turn one of the '76 game (assuming t-1 is nuke!). Firing player flips all bomber, plus fleets and subs in ports, face up. Firing player fires and place missiles on target. Target player roll 'scramble', flip allowed bombers, SSBNs (missile carrying submarines) and land based missiles face up - these cannot be attacked, missiles flipped must fly and attack sov targets, subs can sail to sea, bombers in their phase can attack or move to another airbase. Finally, active player resolves each attack on a hex one by one. NOW, the inactive player may FIRE BACK using surviving land based missiles, and SSBN's in range of targets. NOTE that Soviet SSBN's in port and bombers are considered automatically scrambled, they being first player, and should already be flipped face up and ineligible for attack. Unfired land based missiles, which should be face down still, may be attacked, as may other land targets (industry, oil, airbases ports etc) 3. Active Player Bomber Phase - Active player flies and places bombers on target. If NO missiles were fired in the first missile phase, then the inactive player may now roll for scramble, same as above. No missiles fire yet though. Active player executes bomber missions, one hex at a time, but first in some scenarios (83 on, if I recall) must roll for Allied air defense proficiency, which once determined is in effect for the remainder of the game. That is not the case in the 73 scenario. Note though the Allied player must ALWAYS roll Soviet air defenses. 4. Active Player Naval Phase - Active player may move fleets, SSBN's, SSN's and engage in naval combat where desired. In the case of the first player to fire, all his fleets and subs in port at the start should still exist and may move. 5. Second Missile Phase - Active player may fire surviving land based and submarine missiles as desired and resolve the strike. If no one has nuked yet, the second player rolls on the 'Scramble' table as mentioned above. Second (inactive) player may fire back with missiles, subs etc. Bruce Costello - Jul 16, 2007 1:48 am (#357 Total: 367) Stefan Federsel Has Returned From The Gulag! THE SETUP Important Notes on '76 Scenario - A. Allied player scramble table poor - if 1d6 is in the range 1 to 3, less than half the missiles and bombers get to fly, and no SSBN's in port can go to see. OTOH, if a '6' is rolled, all missiles may fire and all bombers fly. Destruction of both U.S. NCA's allow a -1 DRM to the scramble die roll! B. Chance of decapitation of both U.S. NCA's using commando and FOB's attack is 50%. This assumes the Allied player does not place a land combat unit with each NCA (Commandos can't attack in hexes with land combat units!). C. After the first turn of nuclear warfare, surviving bombers on both sides may continue to conduct missions, assuming enough airbases are intact. The U.S. bombers may use up to 10 bomb pts a turn (a B-52 carries 4 bomb pts, for example) and the Soviet, 6 bomb pts. (ALL bombers may strike on first nuke turn!). D. In '76 scenario, the USSR has the following nuclear capacity, measured in Bombing factors: ICBM's: 22, SSBN's: 7, Bombers: 14 = 43 The U.S. and U.K.: ICBM's 18, SSBN's: 16, Bombers: 20 = 54 I am deliberately not counting either French or PRC forces, which are used automatically by pre-determined table and thus not part of this plan, or Soviet forces assigned to strike Europe or the Far East. This is strictly a planned Soviet strike on the U.S. U.S. FORCES setup: HEX Type (MM2 = minuteman 2, mm3 minuteman 3, TT2 = Titan 2 etc) 0612: TT-2, MM-2, MM-3 0611: NORAD NCA, MM3, MM3 0610: MM2, 2 x MM3, B-52 0711: MM3, 2 x MM2, B-52 0510: Pos C4 SSBN 0511: Pos C4 SSBN 0910: Pol A3 0913: Pol A3 0912: Washington NCA 0810: F-111 Guam: B-52 Azores: B-52 At Sea - 0707: Pos C4, Pol A3 - 1304: Pos C4 - 0907: UK Pol A3 SOVIET FORCES setup: SSBN's (Missile submarines) 0410: SSN-6 (Note - +1 DRM if used in simultaneous strike. See 8.16) 0411: SSN-6 (ditto!) 0607: SSN-8 (Four subs start in port and arn't available for the initial strike, but can be moved during the Naval Phase for subsequent strikes). ICBM's 0903: SS-9 0704: SS-9m2 * 0803: SS-9m2 * 0604: SS-19 * 0506: SS-11, SS-7 0605: SS-11, SS-11m2, SS13 0805: SS11m2 0804: SS11 0805: SS11 (x) 0904: SS11m2 0705: SS17 1003: SS11m2 (*Note - the SS-9m2 and ICBM units have a '+' symbol meaning high accuracy and generate a +1DRM in attack) (x) It is true Soviet missiles cannot set up on hexes not bordering the arctic ocean. Unfortunately, the map is not entirely clear in that a sliver of the hex north of 0805 is the Arctic boundary. Thus, 0805 is a legal setup hex. Bombers:I assigned the following Soviet bombers to follow on strikes against the U.S. Most likely would be strikes on all Atlantic ports, to limit the capacity to move troops overseas. Other strikes may occur though, perhaps on surviving airbases (if no airbases exist, this will eventually eliminate surviving U.S. bombers) or perhaps oil or industrial targets. 0506: TU-95 0706: MY4 0705: Tu-95 0805: TU-22 Together with SSBN's in port and available for movement, the Soviets possess the capability to hit with maximum force (4 bombing factors each) up to three targets. Or, they could dilute attacks to strike a wider number of objectives. And they can phase their attack - there remains a bomber and a missile phase during the Soviet turn, and two missile phases during the Allied strategic phase. Bruce Costello - Jul 16, 2007 2:20 am (#358 Total: 367) Stefan Federsel Has Returned From The Gulag! THE EXECUTION OF THE STRIKE Below I give the precise weapons to target hexes, plus column of the Nuclear Strike table to use and any DRM's. Feel free (I encourage it) to go through this once, make sure I didn't err in hitting targets with missiles that don't have the range, etc. Start with the Unconventional Phase Commando and FOB's attacks - were you able to destroy both NCA;s?? Compare your outcome to my stated probable results. Above all feel FREE to rearrange the strike as you see fit, to better cover more targets or at higher success rate. Post your changes and results here if you like. Above all, have FUN! (Ok, that sounds cruel, but remember - this is all paper and cardboard!) Try a U.S. counterstrike if you like. That should make you think about 'success' in nuclear war in a new light. Maybe... 1st Missile Phase: 1. SS-19, SSN-6 and SS11 vs hex 0612 (TT-2, MM2, MM3) +2 DRM for simultaneous launch and the SS-19's accuracy. Resolve on the '4+' column of the Strategic Nuclear Strike Table 2. SS9m2, SSN6 and SS11 vs 0610 (B-52, 2 x MM3, MM2) Again, +2 DRM for simulatneous launch and the accurate SS9m2. Use same column as above. 3. SS9m2, SS11 vs 0711 (2 x MM2, MM3). +1 DRM, use '3' column. 4. SS11, SS13 and SS11m2 vs 0611 (NCA, MM2, MM3). I assumed for this example that the NCA was probably destroyed earlier by the FOB's attack, which with a set strength of '2+' had a 66% chance of destroying the target. Either that, or a commando raid did it at 50% chance. (Ok to nuke own commandos, by the way - be utterly ruthless!) 5. SS11m2 vs 0810 (F-111) To destroy an airfield requires NDM = 1, thus there is an 80%+ chance of getting a bomber with a '1' strength ICBM, if still on the ground. 6. SS17 vs 0511 (Pos C4 in port) 7. SS9 vs 0510 (Pos C4 in port) 8. SS11m2 and SSN8 vs 0912 (Pol A3 in port) I didn't have enough to strike the fourth U.S. SSBN. Maybe you'll be able to find a way! RANGE OF STRIKE OUTCOMES: It all depends on how the Allied Scramble Table works out. IF you get lucky during the Unconventional decapitation strikes, there is a 66% chance of catching American forces with at least 21 bombing factors on the ground. How many of these you destroy depends on the success of your strike but, 100% is possible. If the American player is not excessively bright, he might leave some of his stronger missiles - such as the TT2 - in base as a 'reserve'. Good luck to him! But a point here is that there WILL be a lot of surviving Allied nuclear strength left around. Counting the four SSBN's at sea and three bombers alone, there will be at least 20 bombing points. Add in surviving ICBM's and ICBM's which are launched under attack, and it's even more. To utterly destroy Soviet industry and maximize damage for the Collapse table only requires 15 NDM's placed in the right hexes. There are five Soviet industrial hexes. If you can apportion things so you can strike each target with 4 bombing factors (either at same time or in phased strikes), there is more than enough Allied means available to accomplish this. After you are familiar, try the Strategic Doctrine rules for additional 'flavor'.