Bruce Costello  - Jan 2, 2006 9:42 pm (#1319 Total: 1319)  
The Mighty Cockroach - the State Bird of Florida! 	 

DAGGER THRUSTS AAR

Finished two games of 'Dagger Thrusts', including one Patton scenario
and one Monty scenario. 

# It's a fun, fairly simple game that stresses high mobility operations.

The Patton scenario depicts hypothetical operations in September 1944,
assuming General Patton had been given the go ahead to attempt to break
into the Reich rather than General Montgomery. There are two ways to win
- get a unit into a Ruhr Hex at any time, or establish a bridgehead
across the Rhine by turn 10. 

The Montgomery scenario depicts the situation faced in the north by the
British. There are three ways to win - establish a narrow corridor to
Arnhem (i.e., Market Garden), clear Antwerp and the Scheldt, or break
into the West Wall. 

1. I tried the Patton scenario first. This game is on a different scale
than 'Monty', with U.S. units at the regiment level. It is also longer,
with ten turns vs 8 for 'Monty'. 

I went for the 'Big' victory, and sought to advance first via the Eifel
(bad idea - terrain makes it very easy for the German to block). Failing
that, the excellent mobility allowed for rapid reconcentration of
efforts to a right hook via the Saar. 

Slugging through to the Ruhr turned out to be a very bloody campaign,
with fierce German resistence able to focus against whatever path of
advance one follows. Still, it nearly succeeded - U.S. units took
Coblenz and had a hole on the last turn, but insufficient movement
points to reach the Ruhr. 

The U.S. side still won a victory though, thanks to the turn 9 arrival
of a three division corps. The U.S. was able to get a bridgehead across
the Rhine south of Worms. A German counterattack nearly defeated this,
but the U.S. won a squeaker victory in any case. 

I would say that it appears the U.S. side can usually win a 'Bridgehead'
victory, and I'd say odds are as high as 75% of this. A classic 'Ruhr'
victory is somewhat harder though - I would currently give it no more
than a 45% chance. 

2. For 'Monty', I chose to try and crush through the Westwall. This
requires taking Aachen, being the last to occupy all Westwall fortress
hexes, and taking German cities east of the Roer. 

I was concerned up front due to the long march British forces, with U.S.
1st Army to the south, had to make. I scheduled airborne drops on turns
2 (Nijmegan - protects the northern flank and also diverts German
attention) and 3 (near Maastricht and Julich, to make those cities
inoperable to reinforcement placement and also to establish protection
to planned British crossings on the lower Roer). 

The operation went surprisingly well, however. I discovered that German
15th Army, with no panzers, has a difficult time threatening 21st Army
Group flank. Furthermore, they must concern with the possibility that
British operations are intending to clear the Scheldt. With the
successful airdrop on Nijmegan (which was opposed, costing one step from
Brit 1st Abn division), the overall plan went without hitch until turn
3, when there was some delay near the Maas as a German airborne unit
made a stand. Still, by the 4th turn British units streamed across the
lower Roer in force, quickly eliminating the fortresses there. Advancing
1st Army units approached Aachen meanwhile. 

As I read the rules, I came to believe that British units moving along
the map edge made German reinforcement impossible, so I did not bother
to garrison such hexes. I threw one Canadian division north towards
Arnhem (forcing Germans to reinforce there) and all the rest fought
through Maastricht, then Julich. 

Unfortunately, I realized that this left the Germans a small pocket
behind the northern Roer to defend. The t-5 reinforcements, plus the
German decision to blow the Roer damns, meant that on turn 8 the Allied
side was faced with Mission Impossible - attack across the receeded
waters of the Roer against a city, and try and take another city. It
didn't succeed, leaving the game a German victory. 

In retrospect, I'm almost certain a British drive to clear the Scheldt
would succeed (in the game, anyway). I don't feel the British player has
the late-game options of diverting reinforcements to do this, so any
such choice must be made fairly early on. As things looked so very
promising the first few turns, I chose not to do this. 

I would guess the British odds of success in this scenario as follows: 

Market Garden option - 38% 

Crush the Siegfried Line - 43% 

Clear Antwerp/take the Scheldt - 84%