Lee Brimmicombe-Wood - Dec 16, 2004 6:49 am (#5251 Total: 5387) Senior Games Designer, Kuju Entertainment Ltd The Burning Blue: AAR Not quite yet. I'm a keepin' my powder dry until February. In the meantime here's a recent AAR and some design feedback from my l337 corps of testers... S3 AAR LW – Gordon RAF – Guy Written from RAF perspective (additional notes from Gordon). A lot of waffle for a short game, but includes my thoughts on tactics etc as the game went along so might serve as a starter for discussion on play hints rather than as a critique. Pre-game – Another run at S3. Rules 1.3.4 (27 Nov), with additions for counter-attacking FJ and -1 per disruption on reactions introduced as the game got under way. Gordon: LW plan: We agreed not to draw chits but to go for a historical 2 hour period & plan the LW raids from there. I deliberately chose a Biggin/Kenley raid entering via Dungeness since in 2 previous tests this raid plan had been decisively stopped by the RAF & it seemed to offer a good benchmark for changes in the system. Ultimately there was a sense of déjà vu (again!) but the overall outcome was, I think, positive. I went for RR (1s Epro 210, 1g 110 Jabos & 1g Ju88 escorted by 2g 110s & 4g 109s to Biggin Hill & Weybridge) together with SS (historically a 3g 109 FJ launched an hour later). The Ju88s went in over Dungeness straight for Biggin covered by all 4g of 109s- 1g CE, 3g TC at A24, A28 & A34-this was a really daft LW escort plan (of which more later)-brilliantly designed to get as many unfavourable reaction modifiers as possible with the bombers at A16, and also to make the patchy cloud layer at A26 en route as awkward as possible for the escorts. The single staffel of Epro 210 went off on a grand tour crossing the Thames Estuary, making landfall at Foulness, sweeping inland over Clacton, then overflying central London, avoiding the balloons to hit Weybridge & egress down the Tangmere sector boundary. The 3 109 FJ gruppen started on GT1 sweeping to N Foreland and then west staggered in echelon SW to NE covering a 5 hex front with a single 110 gruppe trailing the NE 109 gruppe by 1 turn. The intention was to create a beaten zone through which squadrons from Hornchurch and N of the Thames would have to pass to reach the main raid. By creating a large danger space I hoped to impede the RAF from pushing squadrons into position from these sectors, reckoning that the escort for the main raid could take care of squadrons from Biggin, Kenley and Northolt coming straight at the raid. The FJ were briefed to orbit for 1 turn 2 hexes away from Biggin to the W, N and E before turning for home, hopefully sweeping ahead of the retreating bombers. All the FJ were at A30 (110s) or A34 (109s)-another duff piece of altitude management, especially with patchy cloud at A26 over Biggin sector, where inevitably a lot of the action was going to take place. The 110 Jabos were plotted to come in at A20 crossing the coast W of Dungeness and going straight to Biggin. The intention was to make them look like a forward cover FJ, hoping that Guy would concentrate on the main raid and allow them to sneak in. I thought long & hard about escorting them with another gruppe of 110s but decided that a bigger raid would look too much like bombers & attract too much attention so I decided to rely on deception to get the Jabos in. The remaining 110 gruppe was briefed to cross the coast near Eastbourne and sweep up the Tangmere sector boundary to deter the Tangmere squadrons from hitting the main raid, then loiter near Weybridge for a couple of turns (110s may be useless but they do have endurance!) before acting as indirect support for Epro 210 on egress. The main raid, the Jabos and Epro 210 were all briefed to pick up 1g of Channel patrol 109s on egress. In retrospect I don’t think this was a bad plan overall. The main weakness was failing to appreciate the changes in LW tactics that should flow from the new escort reaction rules and altitude modifiers. With escort reaction more uncertain the LW cannot afford the –1 mod for >A6 above the target lightly. Equally since top cover can now react against attacks directed against itself there is less need to try and stack up higher than the RAF as even high RAF squadrons are less certain of the initiative than before. The (very historical) effects here seem to be to pull the top cover down to bomber alt+4, possibly with stacked top cover at A26 (where Hurricanes now have a –1 combat value mod) if the LW is worried about the RAF having too much of the high ground. Particularly with patchy cloud at A26 in the sector where most of the action was due to take place I should have pushed the FJ in at A24 (which would have had the added benefit of disguising the 110 Jabos much more effectively as, at A20, they would have been within the likely spread of altitude results when detected). The top cover should have stacked with 2g 109s at A20 (high enough to get the upsun mod but not too high to get the –1 reaction/intercept mod if the RAF were after the bombers) with the final gruppe at A24 screened against high threats by the patchy cloud at A26. The fact that it takes the RAF a while to get to A28 anyway and the fast start and smaller in air forces now were likely to deny Guy time to get large numbers of fighters very high. The net effect is to create a tactically optimal altitude band for engagement from target A-2 (really A+0) given the climbing intercept mod) to A+4 which applies to both interceptors & escorts. Guy & I had previously agreed that this was probably historically accurate & it’s good to see this effect coming out in the system. Overall the altitude rules are now much more satisfying with a much more sophisticated set of tradeoffs for both players rather than just get as high as you can as fast as you can which applied before. Readiness rolls give slightly below average results, but no crisis unless LF2 & 3 mount a coordinated attack. Prior experience with S3 means that LF3 options are limited and predictable, although probably still difficult to stop, with big raids on south coast targets. The range and variety of LF2 options means prior knowledge is of less value, with sector & satellite stations being the general targets for a bewildering array of possible forces. As ever, in the reactive role the RAF can’t do much ahead of time apart from decide on a few principles: Avoid FJs (but watch out for Jabos) Gordon: An astute LW player could have made this far harder than I did with careful altitude management. Make the defence as aggressive as possible – early hits can at least identify what I am up against. Use wings if possible to get hits on the bombers now the escorts are capable of multiple reactions. Gordon is out for revenge and we agree he can select raids of his choice, probably from the same time slot to give it a more historical slant. RAF confidence further undermined by rumours of new LW fighter tactics being introduced…(late rules additions). Weather – generally OK. Patchy cloud & haze at 2-4 for most areas and patchy cloud at 26 in the Biggen Sector. Time is 0630. Pre-game Form Up: 8 FUs are placed over the Pas de Calais, 30+, 30+, 30+, 10+, 10+, 10+, 10+ and a final one of 100+. That’s a big effort with probably lots of FJs, even allowing for possible dummies. Also means LF3 involvement unlikely. The new response rules give me 2 early sqns & 2 late. 79 & 151 set up forward at Ashford & Eastchurch, with 253 & 222 climbing out to join them. Initial urge is to put Spits up first to combat all those fighters but with a good chance of deeper penetrations they will also be needed once the threat(s) is(are) identified. Gordon: good to see a bit of differentiation between Spits & Hurris emerging with the Spits clearly better at altitude & if attacked-encourages historical play with the Spits trying to deal with fighters particularly now that the LW top cover can potentially turn the tables on the attackers. The first wave of sqns may well be sacrificial lambs to ID what’s going on in any case. I am not happy with the level of response, but that is as it should be. I think the RAF should go into the game with a sense of trepidation on what he is facing most of the time. Sounds great so far, but spreading the choice of sqns from 4 sectors meant that later I was unable to launch pairs of sqns together as wings. GT 1 – The Scramble limit is 1, so 501 launches out of Gravesend to reinforce the weak looking early response. The LW kicks off with a bomb burst of 5 raids setting out on a broad front. H01 (150+ A16) heads west from Wissant, and H08, a 10+ at low level, heads northwest from Calais-Marck. Inbetween are a wall of three 20/30+ raids (H02, H03 & H04) all at A34, which look like FJs. A 30+ FU disappears from over Boulogne with no detection – probably more FJs, if anything at all. (Gordon: Actually the 110 Jabos, which managed to survive 2 detection checks undetected before the Observer Corps picked them up 5 minutes short of target) 2 FUs remain over N France (Gordon: the 2 110 FJs, one plotted to trail the main wave of FJ and the other-headed fro the Tangmere sector boundary launched 2 turns late-further exposing the Jabos). Decide to split forces north & south as the bombing threat seems to be on the flanks with H01 to the south and the low H06 to the north. 151 covers the Thames Estuary, while the rest head for the south coast of the Biggen Sector. GT 2 – Scramble limit now up to 3; 610, 85 and 54 scramble. I’d like to launch a wing for the big H01 raid but am limited by number of Ready sqns and am fearful of all those FJs out hunting. My pre-game selection of sqns doesn’t help either. 151 moves out to the south of Clacton to get outside of approaching wave of raids, looking to come down on H06 at low level from the north. 79 goes to Dungeness in the path of H01, 253, 222 & 501 climb heading south to get out of the way of the FJ and cut off H01 from a direct approach to Biggen & Kenley. The LW raids roll forward – H08 continues northwest at low level to be off North Foreland, the FJ wall coasts in between Margate & Folkestone while what looks like another FJ (H05 30+ A24) forms and heads towards Dover. H01 runs into 79 at Dungeness and are tallied as 1g Ju 88 + 1g 109 CE at A16, with 3g of 109 TC stacked above at 24, 28 and 34 (gulp!). However, with patchy cloud at 26, the upper 2 gruppen will be hampered somewhat and there will be no sun advantage to combats where the action is at A16. 79 go for the bombers but are hit first by the lowest TC, losing 1 Spit & pancaking while the TC is pulled down to A16 and goes to D2 (would have been a D3 on the old cohesion check table). Air Picture goes down to +1. First blood to the LW, although the early intercept & ID has pinpointed what appears to be the main threat. GT 3 - Identifying the threat is one thing, dealing with it is another! Sqns launched this turn will barely get to height before H01 gets to the outskirts of London, its presumed target (?). There is nothing on the south coast where they are heading now. 303 (Northolt) and 603 (Hornchurch) might just make it, so they scramble, as does 111 out of Debden as a reserve for north of the Thames and the Essex coast. (Gordon: I think this is an indication that things are on the right track-the RAF is sweating to get enough squadrons into the air to deal with a raid on Biggin/Kenley) RE detection checks on undetected raids reveals nothing so the FU that disappeared from Boulogne on GT 1 is probably a dummy (Gordon-actually just the Jabos using up their supply of good fortune fast), or maybe FJ on the southern flank of H01. Either way, I will ignore it for now as my hands are full with what I can see! Lee Brimmicombe-Wood - Dec 16, 2004 6:55 am (#5253 Total: 5387) Senior Games Designer, Kuju Entertainment Ltd GT 3 - Identifying the threat is one thing, dealing with it is another! Sqns launched this turn will barely get to height before H01 gets to the outskirts of London, its presumed target (?). There is nothing on the south coast where they are heading now. 303 (Northolt) and 603 (Hornchurch) might just make it, so they scramble, as does 111 out of Debden as a reserve for north of the Thames and the Essex coast. (Gordon: I think this is an indication that things are on the right track-the RAF is sweating to get enough squadrons into the air to deal with a raid on Biggin/Kenley) RE detection checks on undetected raids reveals nothing so the FU that disappeared from Boulogne on GT 1 is probably a dummy (Gordon-actually just the Jabos using up their supply of good fortune fast), or maybe FJ on the southern flank of H01. Either way, I will ignore it for now as my hands are full with what I can see! Another small raid forms (H07, 10+ A28) and sets out west from Le Touquet. Where is that going? I start worrying about Jabos; 3 of the small raids in the “wall” are at A34, so they should be FJ. But the 2 late launches are at 24 and 28 and could be fighter-bombers. Another problem for the future – need to get to grips with H01 first. 151 goes south towards the north Kent coast to get behind the FJ wall and cut off H08 at low level from turning west up the Thames estuary. 54 climbs to the east out of Hornchurch to back up 151. 222 & 253 (both A20) move to block H01 north of Hastings. 501 climbs south to Tunbridge while 610 & 85 climb away south east from Biggen / Croydon to meet H01. Without the strength or time to pick off escorts it looks like it will be just a matter of throwing the sqns in piecemeal at the bombers hoping for poor escort reactions. Can a sqn get through and get in a good hit on the bombers before they bomb? Might be able to get 5 sqns to run the gauntlet before they get to the Biggen / Kenley area, but some these will be climbing intercepts. At least avoiding the FJ is easier in the Biggen sector – with the cloud at 26 the FJs above have a tally range of just 1. In LW movement H08 does not turn up the Thames, but continues northwest, neatly avoiding 151. There is not much where he’s headed, so surely must turn back west or south west soon??? The FJs continue west to abeam Eastchurch – Detling with nothing ahead of them apart from 79 running for home. H01 goes northwest & runs into 253 & 222 north of Hastings. 222 miss their tally but 253 don’t and go for the bombers. The CE reacts late, allowing 253 a free hit on the bombers – they get a bounce and kill 2 and D3 the rest in one pass! They are then hit by the CE and lose 1 Hurricane and happily head for home flicking V signs at the angry 109s now left impotent by the shambles of the bomber formation they were supposed to protect. A flukey result to turn away a 5g raid with 2 sqns, could (should?) just as easily been a massacre the other way. (Gordon: the odds against this are long-although if I had set up the escort properly they could have been a lot longer-the top cover, encumbered by –2 for altitude & the intervening patchy cloud didn’t react & I was reserving the gruppe at 2D until they got back to A20, anyway their disruption would have awarded them a-2 mod in any event). Despite the fiendish luck here I can accept the historicity of the outcome-the LW did have the odd raid turned back against long odds by the RAF. The possibility of this, together with the much greater unpredictability of combat now adds a lot to the game-its no longer just a question of rolling back the escort predictably-disaster can strike either side at any point, even when all looks set for a favourable result. This completely alters the balance of the battle – no big raids now, just the low level raid heading towards Clacton (do they know what Clacton is like??), the possibility of Jabos and perhaps some desperation strafing from the FJ. Gordon is remaining calm on the CB exchanges, either he has something else up his sleeve or he simply has a fixated grudge against Clacton, no matter what the results elsewhere! GT 4 – RE detection check on undetected raids: the missing raid appears – H06 north of Bexhill, 20+ bombers at A20 heading towards Biggen! To get there they must have moved 4 hexes per turn so must be Jabos. (How should headings be handled when a track appears like that? The Observer Corps should be able to give a heading straight away if visual, though I would of thought RDF would need some track history before a heading could be discerned. Should Jabos be revealed as bombers in this way?). Gordon: Some thought needs to be given to Jabos-do OC detections reveal them as bombers (I think the current rules indicate no since they are “fighter class” rather than “bomber class” aircraft though a rules note to this effect might be helpful. Another point-I seem to remember that max altitudes for 109 Jabos in particular came down a long way (? A26 or A28) and possibly the 110s had some similar limitation-might also be worth a note as in later scenarios-esp S5 it will have a bearing on how the LW manage their altitude Scrambles – now looking at possible end game, with no FUs showing anywhere. Estimate that 12g are airborne, so response level must be around 14-15. 11 sqns scrambled so far, so 3 more won’t do any harm – 602, 616 and 56 scramble. With the demise of H01 a quick reorganisation is done – 501 blocks the path to Biggen against the new H06. 610 & 85 backtrack north to get height against the new threat. 222 is reallocated to H07 (10+ A28 FJ?) which is heading west, way over the sea off Dungeness. 151 and 54 block low level H08’s possible turn west or southwest towards the Rochford – Eastchurch area. The reserve sqns of 603 and 111 can now be committed to join the chase for the wayward low-level track. 303 climb over central London as a further reserve. LW movement – H08 continues northwest before turning west and going feet dry 15 miles south of Colchester, outflanking my defence line to the north again!! The main wave of 3 FJs continue west towards the Sevenoaks line, but again the cloud layer protects the sqns below from long-range tally attempts. H05 (30+ A24), behind the first wave of FJ goes towards Eastchurch – is this a Jabo too? Can’t catch him anyway with most of the sqns in the north hunting for H08 in the low level haze. I guessed right with 501 though and the H06 jabos duly run into them south of Sevenoaks. They tally, bounce and D3 the formation of 1g 110s in one go and shoot down one 110. Pretty good for a climbing intercept although it would have been a mission kill in any case as the jabos jettisoned their bombs in combat. The FJs fail tallies on the only units in range, which are the pancaking sqns already engaged and RTB. Meanwhile Y Service picks up a lot of swearing on the German radio freqs as H01 heads outbound – 20 odd scattered Ju 88s exchange insults with nearly 100 109s still serenely in escort formation. Gordon’s calm exterior cracks as exclamation marks appear more often in the CB exchanges; can’t say I blame him, the system has worked well but there is not much you can do against such a run of dice throws. The problem is this run has gone on for 3 games in a row! (Gordon: I’ll admit to quite a lot of frustration at this point but this time I felt far happier-the actions had been tense and I thought that barring really bad luck I had a good chance of getting to the target-I certainly didn’t feel the LW were on a hiding to nothing from the start & reading Guy’s AAR I think that the perspective from the other side of the Channel was very different this time too.) Oh, and to rub salt into the wound the air picture picks up to +2 in the Admin Phase!!! GT 5 – No scrambles – situation looks back in hand. Need to hunt down the pesky low level H08 and avoid the FJ until I have the height to mix it with them and any remaining jabos. No FUs, so it appears nothing else is coming. Even if Gordon used dummy FUs it looks like the range of forces would be from 2 raid chits, so that should be it, even if some of the remaining units are jabos. 111, 603, 56 and 54 form a wall ahead of H08, so someone should get him this time, unless he’s going to Duxford ?!?. Mind you, if it is just another FJ but at low altitude I would be grossly over-committed on him. Hmmm, good point for future games as the LW… 151 climbs out from the low level chase at Eastchurch to have a go at the high level raids later. 303 & 85 continue to climb over London, retreating from the FJ wave. 610 climbs away from them towards Burgess Hill to help 222 cover H07 still off the south coast. 616 scoots east out of Kenley at low level to pass under the FJ with the aim of climbing to height behind them. 602 climbs northeast from Tangmere, might catch someone on egress. LW mvt – H08 continues west towards North Weald and runs into 111 who tally them as 1s Erpro 210. 111 attack, killing 2 and pancaking the rest then turn for home themselves. H03 FJ manages to tally 85 over London and dives to intercept, they lose 1 aircraft each and 85 pancakes while H03 goes to D1. Game called at this point as only FJ are left and the result is not likely to change. VPs: Losses RAF: 3 LW Fighters: 4 Bombers: 2 No points for bombing. RAF victory – albeit a very spawny one! Gordon: Slightly disappointing game with a strong sense of might-have-been. I thought an epic action was brewing inbound for Biggin until 253 delivered their devastating attack. Most importantly I feel very much more positive about the LWs chances in S3. We’ll see how Guy does next time! Additional Points: Early Warning – worked OK although suited to single wave that launches all at once. Gordon: Agreed . Worked well against a “big bang” LW start. Still a bit worried that the fact that scramble limits go up but don’t come down once the LW has a lot in the air means that the LW is deterred from launching a second wave as the RAF has too much time to scramble & climb in the interregnum when he can see formups & know that there is something coming. The current levels of dummies & inflexibility in the LW raid planning make it too easy for the RAF to divine LW intentions. I wonder if there is a case for RAF scramble capability being event based & tied to detections with the ability to replace pancaking sqns (due to combat or fuel) & random events allowing additional scrambles with greater frequency than at present. I rejected a phased raid plan for exactly these reasons-the LW is very dependent on faking the RAF out against the reaction limit. Undetected tracks that become detected – do you get heading information? Are Jabos revealed as bombers from Observer Corps detections? Gordon; Probably not as it stands & I think they shouldn’t be-if the LW player gets his altitude spread right Jabos could be a real nightmare for the RAF now. Combat – although the direct effect of the changes was not seen, the indirect effect of going straight for the bombers is good. Especially so if the early warning rules are working right and the RAF is short of sqns to make a coordinated attack. However, it could reduce the game to a few critical die rolls to see if the escorts react or not. Are the results here too black & white? The RAF either gets a full hit on the bombers or nothing. Should there be provision for a split result where they attack the bombers and escort combined? The chance of doing real cohesion damage on the bombers would be small on the lower combat columns. Lee Brimmicombe-Wood - Dec 16, 2004 6:59 am (#5255 Total: 5387) Senior Games Designer, Kuju Entertainment Ltd Gordon: The effect was magnified here as I had only one bomber gruppe in play & when they got clobbered that was it for the LW. This will be rare. That said there may be a case for toning down the big negative cohesion modifiers at combat values of +3 and above as they will only really affect bomber combats (fighter combats at these numbers will, by definition be against stragglers) Scenario format & raid chit selection – still a weak point making the LW too predictable with too limited options in most cases which the RAF can exploit in an unhistorical way (ie in S3 any meaningful LF2 activity means you can discount LF3). Still looking to ID 2 raids and then with long form up times RAF will get ample warning of any follow up attack. Dummy FUs – is it worth considering being able to add the dummy FU strengths to actual FU counters? Otherwise they are just more small raids. Or just get a total strength of all FUs over the Pas de Calais / Cherbourg rather than individual ones. Gordon: This was a pretty short test but I come away from it very much encouraged-I think a lot of the modeling has taken a long step in the right direction. There are some subtle effects beginning to emerge, particularly around altitude and combat. I think the wider combat/altitude system is headed for the “(relatively) simple to understand but hard to master” state with a lot of uncertainty & unpredictability. Some worries still around LW raid planning & early warning but, particularly for EW, these are decreasing.