David Buckland - 06:13am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#30 of 57) [ Mark ]

One of the good things about All Quiet is the number of viable strategic
options open to both sides. Amongst these options is whether the Germans
could effectively switch their attack from whichever nationality they had
targeted with their initial onslaught (French or British), and launch a
follow-up attack against the other army - this being what happened
historically. After my first f-t-f game, my opponent and I disagreed on
whether this was in fact a viable plan - he argued that it made sense to
carry on pounding whichever army was already on the ropes, while I felt that
the usual stripping of the frontline (as the unassaulted army sends
reinforcements to help its ally) would give the Germans a reasonable
opportunity against the weakened defenders (providing OHL had built up a
reasonable Strategic Reserve). Of course, the best way to answer this type
of question is to game it out.

Some time ago, I posted a write-up (in the WWI folder) on a solitaire game
of All Quiet. That game had reached the first couplet of Turn 5 (May II),
following the Barrage Phase, at which point the Germans had a number of key
decisions to make. One of them concerned this very issue: continue to attack
the British? Try to create a new strategic reserve and go for the French?
Since I had noted down the positions, my opponent and I decided to play on
from that position, with yours truly as the Germans. I did make it clear
that I did not guarantee to switch the attack away from the British (so the
Allies went into this having an idea what the Germans might be up to, but no
certainty).

What follows is my write-up of that game. For the sake of completeness, I am
also reposting the description of the first turns, to set the scene. I make
no claims that we displayed any great skill (especially on my side) but hope
it might be of some interest.

Turn 1 (March II): the Germans launch a modified Plan Michael against the
British, who are defending the line with three units per hex north of Arras,
one unit per trench hex south, with the French stacked two units per hex
except for the Rheims sector and Verdun. There is a 15-unit Strategic
Reserve (12 Stoss), the idea being to prevent the Amis from stripping too
many units away from non-threatened parts of the front, and to launch the
second phase of the German attack against the British (in Apr II). 17th Army
launches one combined assault immediately north of the Vimy Ridge which
takes the British trenchline, but fails to penetrate beyond it, as the
British react strongly in this sector to the threatened pincer movement
against Arras. South of the town, where 18th and 19th Armies assault the
British 5th Army (8 frontline hexes), the trenchline everywhere falls into
German hands, but despite heavy losses, 5th Army retreats in relatively good
order. Ham, Peronne, and Bapaume fall to the Germans this turn.

Turn 2 (April I): good weather continues as the German 19th Army drives
towards Noyon, while the 18th Army takes Albert on its way towards Amiens,
while also swinging north against the British 3rd Army trying to build a
shoulder at Arras. This attempt is fatally compromised when a two division
(3 step) stack with no reserves behind it, and attackable from only one hex,
is wiped out (a successful strafe followed by a six on the 18 to 22
attackers' CRT), and the Germans pour through the breach. Arras and the Vimy
Ridge are abandoned, and by the end of a six-couplet turn, the Germans have
taken Noyon (against stiffening French resistance), Arras, and St. Pol
(just).

David Buckland - 06:20am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#31 of 57) [ Mark ]

Turn 3 (April II): the good weather continues, so Ludendorff launches Part 2
of his offensive against the British: Georgette following Michael. The 19th
Army, having just taken Noyon, but being some way away from Montdidier,
closes down its attack, while the 1st Army in Flanders launches the
Strategic Reserve against the Allied line (stacked two high, except for
Passchendaele, held by one division), from north of Passchendaele to Ypres.
Heavey casualties on both sides, but while the Germans manage to take one
frontline hex from the Belgians just south of the Yser by combined attack,
this plus Passchendaele is the extent of their gains on the first couplet.
Continual pressure gradually forces the Allies to retreat, surrendering more
trench hexes, but there is no rout (no German Stoss divisions getting behind
the defenders, or threatening any Allied HQs). Further south, 18th Army
makes gradual progress, eventually taking Amiens, but strong French
resistance, including an increasing number of counterattacks with tanks,
mean that the advance on Abbeville makes little headway. 17th Army takes
Bethune, but German casualties are rising, and as the number of effective
attacks they can make each couplet gradually falls, it is becoming more
difficult for them to sustain 17th Army's offensive, as well as those of 1st
and 18th Armies. The former's pressure leads to the reluctant abandonment of
Ypres, Passchendaele, Armentieres, and Mont Kemmel by the British 1st Army.

Turn 4 (May I): Recognising that they cannot sustain such divergent attacks,
the Germans close down the drive north by 17th Army, and concentrate on 18th
Army trying to take Abbeville, and 1st Army driving on Hazebrouck, and
trying to cross the Yser in the direction of Dunkirk. However, the shortened
frontline, especially in the British sector facing 1st Army, means the
defences are becoming comparatively stronger, and 1st Army makes little
progress. 18th Army is similarly baffled, by a combination of rivers,
marshes, and the French 10th Army.

Turn 5 (May II): on Turn 4, to avoid Allied defensive barrages, the Germans
did not stack on the first couplet, which contributed to their lacklustre
progress. This turn, they take the opposite approach, but their CBS fire
fails in both the Abbeville and Hazbrouck-Yser sectors. Although the Allies
suffer too, four German stacks, containing the best remaining German units
(the bulk of those at full strength on the north map), lose 15 steps.

* *****

This was the point I had reached solitaire. It looks as if the Germans are
not going to be able to reach Dunkirk and Abbeville. Morale is German 47,
French 29, British 14. From this, it is obvious that the British morale loss
is less than might have been expected: 10 "C" towns, and 3 "B"s should have
yielded an average morale loss of 30.5, which together with other morale
losses should have pushed the British out of the war by now. On the other
hand, I like the variable VP idea: there is no way Ludendorff could have
known that taking this or that town or city (even Paris) would have
necessarily won the war for him. In this game, since the German has done
badly in this area more or less from the start, Allied actions have
reflected this. For example, both Amiens and Noyon are in the frontline, and
the French may have fought the harder to keep them, had the British been
under more pressure.

Some other facts: there are 38 French divisions on the North Map (with 2
destroyed), plus the 5 Americans (ie. all 10 units). British losses are 23
divisions from their At Start forces, with 21 reduced. The Germans have lost
40, with 56 reduced. West of the original German frontline, there are 80
German divisions, 27 at full strength, but only 4 Stoss not reduced. The
frontline runs along the original Belgian frontline, then the Yser, before
slanting SW to Hazebrouck and the surrounding woods. The line then runs
East-West to the St. Pol river, before again turning SW to Abbeville, where
it runs along the Somme until the river forks. At that point, it follows a
gentle curve SE to the German salient at Noyon, before rejoining the
original French frontline in the marshes. French defences are one division
per hex from there to Verdun, except for the Rheims sector and Verdun
itself. There is a doubled Allied defence line from the coast to the fork in
the Somme (more or less).

* *****

Ludendorff decides that the British have ridden out his one-two punch, and
decides to switch attention to the French. The aim is to launch a series of
shallow offensives (ie. no plans to reach Paris), aiming to capture Chalons,
Rheims, Epernay, Soissons, Compiegne (all "B" towns and cities), plus
Villers-Cotterets and Chateau Thierry (both "C"s). The average morale loss
to the French if all these places fall will be 21.5 points. Given that the
Germans have until July I inclusive to reach these goals, before the
initiative switches to the Allies, the French can be expected to lose an
additional four net points, offsetting the arrival of 2 more US divisions
against the turn penalty. Given the Turn 5 French morale level of 29, and
the need to activate French armies, the French may find it tough going. On
the other hand, the Germans are going to have a problem scraping together
the necessary force. They do have the advantage that, for the most part, as
of this point, the Germans have mostly two division stacks (4-4s and 3-4s)
opposite the French lines in question, while many of the French trench hexes
are only occupied by one division (from the La Fere marshes in the centre of
the Mar II frontlines to the Argonne, the French have 31 divisions, while
the Germans have 40, apart from any Strategic Reserve they manage to scrape
together).

David Buckland - 05:22am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#32 of 62) [ Mark ]

Turn 5 (May II) continued: the Germans press no attacks against the British
, following their losses to Allied defensive fire, and begin to move reduced
Stoss divisions towards their Mar II frontline, with the objective of
rebuilding as many of them as possible, and transferring them into a new
Strategic Reserve. Not quite sure what to make of this, the Allied response
is muted, some small scale attacks in the Abbeville and Hazebrouck areas in
the final couplets being the limit of their reply.

Turn 6 (June I): the Germans close down Michael/Georgette (activating no
armies). With rebuilds from the redployed Stoss divisions, together with
transfers from Alsace and other quiet sectors, Ludendorff accumulates a
respectable 22 division reserve (14 Stoss, 1 Infantry, 7 Position). The
Allies activate only one army, the British 2nd near St. Omer. This launches
a series of limited attacks, culminating in the recapture of St. Pol. The
German frontlines in their huge salient in Picardy are weakly held, only the
areas around Noyon, Amiens, and Abbeville being defended in any strength. On
the other hand, the Allies do not want to dissipate their strength in too
many attacks, until they have a better idea what the Germans are planning
for the second half of the month. Given that the French may be under threat,
a limited number of divisions is redeployed south: the 2 US Turn 5
reinforcements, plus two other French divisions arrive in the Chemin des
Dames sector, while the two Italian divisions back up the line near Chalons.
A further US division (the 5th) moves to Paris, and a French armoured
brigade entrains near Montdidier. The Allies are reluctant to move too much
south, in case the Germans renew their attacks agaianst the battered
northern sector, the OHL Strategic Reserve giving the Germans much greater
flexibility than the Allies currently enjoy. Morale at Turn end: German 46
(-1 for turn), French 27 (-2 for turn), British 13 (-1 for turn, -1 for
activation, +1 for recapture of St. Pol).

Turn 7 (June II): Ludendorff launches Operation Blucher, with the strategic
difference from the historical attack being that OHL knows this is Germany's
last chance to win the War (as opposed to a prelude to a Flanders
offensive). Given that this is in some ways the critical turn of the game,
the narrative will be split into phases/couplets.

June II HQ Phase: is the most difficult of the game so far. The German
decision to activate 3rd Army (at Laon) and 4th Army (opposite Rheims) are
foregone conclusions, but the intial intention to move one of the now
inactive northern HQs strategically to the new attack sector is scrapped,
and instead 19th Army (HQ at Ham) is activated. Although the HQ itself is
badly placed to sustain a deep offensive, this has two advantages: firstly,
the German can use his RPs to build up reduced divisions in the Noyon area,
and deploy them immediately in support of the attack (otherwise, without
19th Army active, any units rebuilt with the June II RPs would take longer
to reach the battlefront, given that the Strategic Reserve and all other
German units south of La Fere are at full strength). Secondly, and more
importantly, the 19th Army is better placed than the 3rd to reach Compiegne,
and threaten to outflank the defending French 2nd Army from the north. For
the Allies, the problem is greater. Ideally, they would like to redeploy
British forces to the threatened sector, but they are too far away, and the
Germans, although only controlling Amiens on the line itself, interdict the
crucial Abbeville-Compiegne railway from six other hexes. Nevertheless, a
British HQ (5th Army from Montdidier) is strategically moved to near
Villers-Cotterets. After some thought, Haig does not activate another a
British army (a mistake, which is why I bring Haig's name into the
narrative, since mistakes were his forte). The French would, rules and
morale permitting, ideally like to activate 4 armies. From south to north,
these are: 3rd Army in the Rheims area, 2nd Army at Soissons, 1st Army near
Montdidier, and 10th Army between Abbeville and Amiens. Forced to choose
only two, the French plump for the 1st and 2nd. Foch and Petain want one of
the two armies north of Compiegene to be active to feed reinforcements into
the danger zone more quickly (given the problems with rail communication),
and although 10th Army could usefully free the rail line of German
interdiction (as well as being much the stronger of the two), 1st Army can
intervene more directly against the German attacks. Further south, 2nd Army
is felt to be under greater threat than 3rd.

June II 1st Couplet: the Germans launch three distinct attacks against the
French front line: a) 19th Army at the point where the tributary running
towards La Fere branches off from the Oise b) 3rd Army immediately adjacent
to both banks of the Aisne c) 4th Army SW of Rheims Of these, the first two
lead to to breakthroughs, while the last is comfortably repulsed. 2nd Army
is in danger of being pocketed, and retreats as fast as possible, but this
is not very far, given the poor terrain and number of rivers. Its flank near
Rheims with the 3rd French Army is held by only a single line for 7 miles (2
hexes), and between Soissons and Compiegne, there is a 10 mile (three hex)
gap, although the poor positioning of 19th Army HQ may help the French here.
Both sides lose 9 steps in this couplet, the Germans having 54 divisions in
the sector of the front they are attacking compared to an at start French &
Allied tally of 24 French divisions, plus 2 US (4 units).

June II 2nd Couplet: 3rd Army attacks the weakened French line near Amiens,
and its leading Stoss divisions drive over the Vesle, fanning out towards
Epernay and Chateau Thierry. A renewed assault by 4th Army on the trenches
SW of Rheims is repulsed again. 19th Army does not attack, but moves into
the gap between the French 1st and 2nd Armies, crossing the Aisne, and
approaching Compiegne (thus effectively severing Allied rail communication
between Compiegne and Montdidier). The French 2nd Army retreats
precipitately in the direction of Villers-Cotterets, abandoning Soissons.
Despite this, there is still a 1 hex gap between 2nd Army and its neighbour
to the north. The French 3rd Army meanwhile tries to build a "shoulder" from
Rheims to Epernay, flanking the German breakthrough, including
reinforcements railed in from the armies defending Verdun and Nancy. The
consequence though is a 17 mile (5 hex) gap along the Meuse between the
French 2nd Army trying to cover Villers-Cotterets, and 3rd Army defending
Rheims. Further north, the German begin to pull back from their Abbeville
salient, in order to free up troops to feed into 19th Army's offensive.
Losses (steps): German 5, French 5, US 1.

June II 3rd Couplet: German 3rd Army units break through the French defences
between Rheims and Epernay, leaving the former in an exposed salient. The
French 3rd Army thins the defences of Rheims, and abandons Epernay in an
attempt to create a stronger line further back., as the first German units
cross the Marne. Meanwhile, in the direction of Chateau Thierry and
Villers-Cotterets, the Germans are content to follow the retreating French
2nd Army, taking Soissons. 19th Army is more active, widening the gap
between the French 1st and 2nd Armies, and unsuccessfully assaulting
Compiegne. 4th Army continues its fruitless assaults on the French trenches,
while shifting the point of attack further east (any breakthrough here would
put the French 3rd Army in an untenable position). Further north, the
retreat from the Abbeville salient to a line St. Pol - Amiens has been
completed. The French 2nd Army continues its retreat, and ends the couplet
centred on Villers-Cotterets. Two cavalry divisions are all that have
managed to reinforce the beleaguered army from the north, and there is still
a danger that it will be surrounded, especially as the HQ (in
Villers-Cotterets itself) will make further large-scale withdrawals more
difficult. On the other hand, the Germans are facing increasing supply
problems (with 6 divisions out of supply at the end of their exploitation
phase). Losses (steps): German 4, French 2, US 1.

June II 4th Couplet: The German 3rd Army splits into two halves, one facing
the French 3rd Army on the line Rheims - Epernay, the other, somewhat
smaller (eg. of the remaining full-strength Stoss divisions, one as opposed
to three) heading towards French 2nd Army in the direction of
Villers-Cotterets. The French flank near Epernay is in the air, but supply
constraints mean that the Germans cannnot really take advantage of this. The
German 4th Army, reinforced by fresh divisions drawn from the quiet sectors
of the line further east and south, continues to probe the French trenches
in the Chalons area without success. 19th Army assaults Compiegne, but the
French hang on, and reinforcements are on the way from 10th Army further
north. Exploiting Stoss divisions take undefended Epernay and Chateau
Thierry, although both are out of supply. The gap between the French 1st and
2nd Armies is closed (as the Germans were concentrating on Compiegne, and in
any event are experiencing severe supply problems). The same difficulties,
allied to the absence of any worthwhile objectives, make a German drive SW
from the Chateau Thierry - Epernay gap (now 34 miles wide - 10 hexes)
unlikely. Losses (steps): German 5, French 5, Italian 2.

David Buckland - 05:25am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#33 of 62) [ Mark ]

June II 5th Couplet: OHL decides to concentrate on 3rd Army's eastern drive:
2 full-strength divisions begin the move from the western to the eastern
half of the army, while the former reverts to the defensive. The offensive
towards Chalons makes slow but steady progress, although a combined assault
on Rheims fails to dislodge the French 35th Division (the lone defender).
19th Army gives up on direct assaults on Compiegne, and tries to envelop the
city. The leading German units cross both the Marne to the west, and the
Oise to the NE, of the city, but the French still control the rail line from
the NW (ie. Compiegne is surrounded on 5 of 6 hexes by Germans). A
subsequent US counterattack, with help from French armour, eliminates the
Marne bridgehead, but the city is still under threat. Further south, a
combined assault takes Villers-Cotterets from the French 2nd Army. 4th Army
continues to batter at the French trenches in the Chalons sector, with
casualties on both sides, but no breakthrough. Losses (steps): German 8,
French 8.

At this point, the turn ends. 2 German reduced Stoss divisions disintegrate
through being exhaustion and lack of supply, including one in Chateau
Thierry, which reverts to the French. Morale: German 42 (-1 for turn, -3 for
activation), British 13 (-1 for turn, +1 for US entry), French 10 (-2 for
turn, -4 for activation, coincidentally -3 each for Soissons, Epernay,
Chateau Thierry, and Epernay, +1 for "recapture" of Chateau Thierry, +1 for
US entry).

Turn 8 (July I): This is Germany's last chance to win the war. The arrival
of eight fresh US divisions in the second half of the month will boost
Allied morale by an amount which will make German victory vitually
impossible, although they may well keep the initiative. And there is a
distinct possibility that Ludendorff will bring it off. After adjusting for
the turn penalty and the arrival of the US 33rd Division, French morale is
10. Both Rheims and Compiegne are in the frontline, and should fall this
turn, for a net expected gain of 7 morale points. Chateau Thierry should
also be retaken, giving another two points, and bringing the Germans to the
brink of victory. This is made the more likely by the fact that the parlous
state of French morale makes it difficult for them to activate any armies in
their defence.

July I HQ Phase: The Germans activate 19th, 3rd, and 4th Armies as before,
the British the redeployed 5th Army near Meaux (which then gets 6
newly-reconstituted British units as reinforcements) plus 2nd Army near St.
Pol. The French activate no armies.

July I 1st Couplet: The gallant defenders of Compiegne (the French 10th &
152nd Divisions) hang on grimly against a barrage and combined maximum
attack, but their fate is sealed when another 19th Army thrust severs the
last Allied link with the city. To the East, another combined maximum
assault overwhelms Rheims, and the French begin to withdraw from the salient
created by their fight to maintain a link with it. An undefended Chateau
Thierry is re-occupied by Germans now in supply for a maximum three point
morale loss. However, the Anglo-American 5th Army launches an immediate
counter-attack, retaking the town from the relatively weak defenders for a 2
point gain (this sector has been weakened to strengthen the thrusts towarrds
Chalons and Compiegne). US forces, with British tank support, launch an
attack in the direction of Villers-Cotterets which makes progress. Meanwhile
in Picardy, the British 2nd Army attacks in the direction of Bethune. French
morale at the end of the couplet is 6 (-3 for Chateau Thierry and Rheims, +2
for the recapture of the former). Losses (steps): German 11, French 5,
British 2, US 2.

July I 2nd Couplet: The recapture of Chateau Thierry by the British means
that, even at best, the inevitable fall of Compiegne this couplet cannot
produce a German victory. Unfortunately, there are no strong forces
immediately available to counterattack at Chateau Thierry (not to mention
the need to deal with the US thrust towards V-C, which has reached the
outskirts of the town), and in any event 3rd Army is not able to
simultaneously supply forces in this area, and support the drive on Chalons.
Nevertheless, 7 divisions (a mixture of Stoss, Infantry, and Position) are
despatched westwards to mount an attempt to retake the town in the 3rd
Couplet. This proves to be just as well, as the drive on Chalons makes no
progress, despite a welter of casualties, nor does 4th Army, now renewing
its attacks on the original trenchline, after a pause to regroup and bring
up fresh divisions. 19th Army attacks Compiegne in another maximum combined
attack, and this time the city is taken, yielding 5 morale points. This
reduces French morale to 1 point, so that if the Germans can retake Chateau
Thierry (to which they are adjacent, unlike Chalons, the next nearest French
objective city), they will win the war. On the other hand, the
Anglo-Americans are also preparing to hold the town in strength. Further
north, despite more progress by the British 2nd Army, the Germans still
occupy a vast salient that reaches Amiens (OHL is reluctant to yield any
Morale Point objectives, in order to hang on to the initiative for as long
as possible, even if Chateau Thierry is not recaptured). Losses (steps):
German 8, French 6, British 2.

July I 3rd Couplet: Naturally, the greater than expected decline in French
morale following the fall of Compiegne means that Chateau Thierry becomes
the focal point of the Western Front. The Germans abandon the offensive
towards Chalons, and transfer the bulk of 3rd Army's remaining full-strength
Stoss and Infantry divisions (10 in all) towards Chateau Thierry, where they
will arrive in the next couplet, while a probe cuts the Paris-Vitry railway.
19th Army also moves substantial forces southwards towards CT, successfully
counterattacking the US thrust towards Villers-Cotterets on the way.
Deciding that the defenders of CT itself (18th British, 2nd Australian, and
US 28th Divisions: 22 factors and eight steps) are too strong for a direct
assault, the Germans decide, despite the time pressure, to try to isolate
the town by attacking the defending units to either side of it, a tactic
which worked well at Compiegne. Despite numerous casualties, however, the
Allies hang on, and the Germans register no significant advances. 3rd Army
may well need more time to clear the town than the Germans have left. Losses
(steps): German 6, British 2, US 1, French 1.

David Buckland - 05:26am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#34 of 62) [ Mark ]

July I 4th Couplet: The reinforced German 3rd Army launches an all-out
attack on CT and its defenders to the immediate North & South West. German
losses are severe, but the French to the NW are pushed back, a potentially
severe blow to the Allies. To the SW, advance units from 3rd Army are trying
to outflank the British 5th Army's defensive line. The 5th Army is weakened
far more in the critical sector than had been anticipated, and can only
afford to hold CT and the hex immediately to the West in sufficient strength
to have any certainty of still being in possession of them after the next
couplet: the other defence lines are lightly held. Two more couplets like
this and Chateau Thierry will fall. Further to the north, the British 2nd
Army offensive reaches the outskirts of Bethune. However, the Germans are
exhausted, and the assault on CT proves to be their last offensive gasp (ie.
the turn ends at this point). Losses (steps): Germans 14, US 5, French 2.
Morale at turn end is: German 38 (-1 for turn, -3 for activation), British
11 (-1 for turn -2 for activation, + 1 for US entry), French 1.

Turn 9 (July II): The Germans switch to the defensive, having lost the War
(if not yet the game). Their front line is 370 miles (109 hexes) long,
compared to the original 280 (83 hexes), but whereas the front prior to the
opening of Michael in March II consisted entirely of trench hexes, now only
130 miles (39 hexes) run along the original trench lines. To defend their
gains, the Germans have 149 divisions, of which 54 are reduced: losses
amounting to a quarter of their starting units, and almost two-fifths of
their strength (steps). The Allies, by contrast, given the influx of
American divisions, have slightly more units (with slightly less steps) than
their at start strength.

July II HQ Phase: the Germans decide to activate no armies, the idea being
to cling on to the initiative for as long as possible. The idea is that, as
long as the Allies are unable to effectively exploit, the reduced German
movement should still enable them to prevent any Allied breakthroughs, while
conducting a stubborn forward defence (the other, rejected option, being to
activate enough armies to retreat directly to the original trench lines).
The Allies activate the 2nd and 5th British armies, as well as the French
1st in the Noyon sector, as this army faces the weakest-held part of the
German line.

1st Couplet (July II): the start of the second half of July is a disaster
for the Germans. The big danger is that the 5th Army may well strike NW
towards Villers-Cotterets, in order to sever the German 3rd Army (containing
the the strongest remaining part of the erstwhile Blucher forces) from 19th
Army to the north in the Compiegne sector. Holding the frontline in strength
serves merely to provide more targets for a very effective British artillery
barrage, and the follow-up Anglo-American attacks, while not retaking
Villers-Cotterets, have created a gap that the 3rd Army will not be able to
close. To the north of Noyon, the German line crumples in the face of the
French 1st Army's attacks, creating another uncloseable gap. 19th Army,
threatened on both flanks looks as if it will have to retreat as fast as
possible to avoid encirclement. The French tactic of hitting only weakened
divisions, in order to maximise holes in the line, seems to be paying off,
and the Germans are paying the price that non-activation extracts in terms
of higher casualties, Meanwhile, to the north, British 2nd Army recaptures
Bethune. Losses (steps): Germans 18, British 4, US 1, French 1.

2nd Couplet (July II): Amiens is finally abandoned by the German 18th Army
(+2 British morale), while French 1st Army retakes Noyon (+1 British
morale). Villers-Cotterets is retaken by the Anglo-Allied 5th Army (+2
French morale). The pincers closing on 19th German Army reach the Ourcq
River to the south, the Oise to the north. Losses (steps): German 6, British
3, US 1.

3rd Couplet (July II): 19th Army abandons Compiegne to the French 1st Army
(+3 French morale), but this does not save it as the French and British 51st
Divisions close the ring: trapped are 11 divisions (4 reduced), mostly
Position, but these will be sorely missed. Nor is there much chance of
rescue: the Germans have only 1 reduced division between the Oise and the
Ourcq to the east of the Allied encirclement. Meanwhile, the British 2nd
Army takes the first German trench hex near Bethune, while to the south the
French 4th Army launches an unsuccessful (out-of-command) attack on Epernay.
Foch continues to deploy most of the fresh US divisions in the Noyon sector,
with a view to activating 1st US Army in late August in the vulnerable La
Fere-St. Quentin area. Losses (steps): Germans 5, British 3, French 3, US 1.

4th Couplet (July II): The Germans are forced to abandon Lens (-2 German
morale) to the British 2nd Army, which drives into the gap between the
German 2nd and 17th Armies (Lens-Vimy Ridge). A British cavalry division
finally gets to move into the green fields beyond, passing through the gap
and seizing part of the German secondary defence line across the Deule River
(?) to the south of Lille. Elsewhere, the German defence is more stubborn,
as they repulse attacks on Arras, Soissons, and Epernay. The French 1st
Army, however, successfully assaults Ham (+2 British morale), and retakes
abandoned Albert (+1 British morale). The pace of the Allied advance has
temporarily exhausted Foch's forces, so the turn ends at this point. Truly a
Black Fortnight for the German Army, having lost over a fifth of their
strength during the course of the turn. Turn end morale is: German 35,
British 25, French 10. Losses (steps): German 24 (including 15 from the
surrounded 19th Army), British 4, French 1.

David Buckland - 05:28am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#35 of 62) [ Mark ]

Turn 10 (August I):

1st Couplet (August I): The Germans activate (from north to south) 2nd Army
(HQ near Lille), 17th Army (HQ between Arras and Cambrai), 18th Army (HQ
between Peronne and Bapaume), and 3rd Army (retreating towards the Chemin
des Dames). The Allies repeat their July II activations. Desperate German
counterattacks against the bridgehead across the Deule fail to drive back
British 2nd Army, although British losses are high, while the British
remorselessly expand the perimeter. The best efforts of 18th and 3rd Armies
still leave a 10 mile (3 hex) gap in their front lines at the marshes near
La Fere, and the French 1st Army drives into this, taking La Fere (-3 German
morale) in the process, although six units at the forefront of the advance
have outrun their supplies. The Germans give up the towns of Arras (+4
British morale), Soissons (+4 French morale), and Epernay (+5 French morale)
without a fight, and these are duly reoccupied by Entente forces. Losses
(steps): German 4, British 8, French 1, US 1.

2nd Couplet (August I): The Germans manage to close the La Fere gap, but not
without the loss of St. Quentin (-1 German morale). Moreover, the French 1st
Army pushes the defenders out of a 7 mile (2 hex) stretch of the last German
defence line (the secondary trench) near the town. To the north, British 2nd
Army remorselessly expands the Deule bridgehead in the direction of Lille.
Such is the weakness of the Germans in this area, especially 2nd Army to the
north, that they cannot mount a meaningful counterattack, despite the threat
this penetration represents. The Allies reoccupy Bapaume (+3 British morale)
and Peronne (+1 British morale) without a fight, but elsewhere attacks on
German defenders increasingly occupying trench lines leads to a marked
increase in Allied casualties. Losses (steps): German 5, British 2, French
2, US 6.

3rd Couplet (August I): With the Allied forces having reached the original
trench lines everywhere except the Vesle, progress slows. Neither German
counterattacks nor Allied assaults in the two key sectors (Lille and St.
Quentin) yield any result other than casualties. Losses (steps): German 9,
British 5, French 5.

4th Couplet (August I): No more German counterattacks. British 2nd Army
makes minor progress, while to the south, French 2nd Army is a little more
succesful, breaching a seven mile (2 hex) stretch of the German line Losses
(steps): German 6, British 2, French 2, US 2. Turn end morale is: German 25,
British 34, French 19.

This means that the Germans will formally yield the initiative to the Allies
in the second half of August. The small breach that 1st French army has
opened up north of St.Quentin with US help looks particularly ominous now
that the Entente will be moving first. The Germans did their best to avoid
any gaps opening up, but are stretched too thin to be able to ensure this.
It might in retrospect have been a good idea to have had some units in the
Strategic Reserve at this point, which could then be deployed near the
threatened sector, but on the other hand rail movement has been critical to
the German in the last two turns in reinforcing the Lille and St. Quentin-La
Fere areas. The Germans have, of course, had no chance of achieving a draw
since the debacle in the second half of July, and with each passing
fortnight, their position becomes ever more desperate. At this point,
assuming a minimum of two army activations a turn, they will lose a minimum
of 18 morale between now and Nov I, leaving only a seven point cushion for
town/city losses: patently insufficient.

Turn 11 (August II):

1st Couplet (Aug II): The Allies activate the French 1st and British 2nd
Armies, and the German defensive barrage does great damage to the British
2nd Army, the bulk of which is crowded into the small Deule bridgehead.
However, this is the last good news for the German, as the remaining forces
are still strong enough to decisively rupture the German defensive cordon.
American divisions of the French 1st Army pour through the gap in the
defences to the NE of the La Fere-St. Quentin salient, reaching the
outskirts of Cambrai, and overunning 18th Army HQ. To the SE, French forces
penetrate the tenuous German line, taking Guise (-1 German morale). The
remnants of 18th Army between Cambrai and Guise retreat as fast as possible,
but gaps open up between them and 17th Army to the north, and 3rd Army to
the south. The trenches between the Deule breakthrough and Cambrai are
abandoned by 17th Army as it pulls back, although it maintains contact with
2nd Army around Lille. To the south, 3rd Army pulls back from the trenches
north of the Chemin des Dames as its northern flank pulls back to contain
the Franco-American advance. Losses (steps): German 10, British 13, French
1, US 1.

2nd Couplet (Aug II): The seven divisions comprising what is left of 18th
Army are surrounded between Cambrai and Guise. Meanwhile, Le Cateau and
Cambrai (both -2 German morale) fall to advancing Franco-American forces,
while on its right wing, the French 1st Army moves to outflank the
retreating German 3rd Army from the north. British 2nd Army attacks the
sensitive boundary between the German 17th and 2nd Armies, and takes Lille
(-5 German morale). Rheims (+3 French morale) and Mt. Kemmel (+3 British
morale) are retaken as the Germans shorten their lines. The Germans manage
to keep 18th and 2nd armies linked, but only just: there is insufficient
force to properly guard against drives against both Maubeuge and Ghent, and
the line is vulnerable to an exploited breakthrough (ie. is single-line in
places). 18th Army's left flank rests on the woods west of Maubeuge: from
there to the nothern flank of 3rd Army there is a 27 mile (8 hex) gap, held
by only two railed-in Position divisions, barring the southern approaches to
Maubeuge. 3rd Army itself is busy trying to block the westward advance of
the French 1st Army, and is falling back from its salient towards La Fere
between Guise and Rheims. The Allies are beginning to experience supply
problems, given the rapidity of their advance: 15 French units, 12 US units,
and one British Tank brigade are out of supply at then end of the couplet.
Losses (steps): German 6, British 2, French 1, US 1.

3rd Couplet (Aug II): The Franco-American 1st Army, having outrun its supply
lines, consolidates, giving the Germans a breathing space, although the
trapped 18th Army is gradually being ground down by repeated assaults. 3rd
Army manages to establish a securer northern flank, resting on the woods
between the Sambre and the Meuse. To the north, British 2nd Army shatters
the thin defence line linking the German 18th and 2nd Armies, although
supply problems prevent the Canadians and Australians from exploiting as
much as they would have wished. Nevertheless, the gap between the two German
armies is 14 miles (four hexes). The Allies decide to send the British 2nd
Army NE (in the direction of Ghent and Bruges, defended by the German 1st &
2nd Armies), while the northern (predominantly US) half of French 1st Army
advances on the German 18th Army covering Maubeuge and Mons. British 1st
Army recovers Armentieres from the slowly-retreating German 1st Army. Losses
(steps): German 8, French 5, British 2, US 1.

4th Couplet (Aug II): With the British too experiencing severe supply
problems and fatigue, this is a relatively quiet couplet. British pressure
on the German defenders in Flanders forces them to yield Ypres, and retreat
towards the line of the River Lys, but there are no spectacular
breakthroughs. Further south, the reduction of 18th Army continues. The turn
ends, as the remaining two divisions of the doomed 18th Army surrender, with
morale at: German 11, French 22, British 42. Losses (steps): Germans 4, US
4, British 1.

Game End: At this point, the game is awarded to the Allies. With 5 turns to
go, and German morale at only 11, the Germans can afford to activate only 1
army per turn, assuming they lose no more morale towns/cities: clearly an
impossible task either way. With the Allied Big Push due to start in
September I, there is no way one activation will suffice for the Germans.
The respective strengths of the armies also reveals the hopelessness of the
German position: Germans 90 units/132 steps, Belgians 12/22, British 49/76,
French 93/168, US 47/90. While the Germans have lost 46% of their strength
in the three turns starting July II, the Entente are at virtually the same
level..

Nor is this the end of German problems. The Allied offensives have
effectively cut the German front in two at the Sambre, with the northern
half of the front being noticeably weaker, and the Germans having only
limited ability to shift reinforcements north. A redeployment of Allied HQs
to begin a drive on Brussels, while simultaneously keeping the pressure on
Flanders and 18th Army around Maubeuge would leave OHL with no resources to
block it. Even in the south, there are looming problems, as the French
prepare to create a 22 division Strategic Reserve for release in September
II.

Post-Mortem: aside from numerous tactical errors (which thankfully do not
appear in this narrative), the main mistakes were made by the German side -
perhaps inevitable, given that they started the game with the initiative.
Although the one-two Michael-Georgette strategy might have worked, the
Germans should have abandoned the idea that the attack on the British would
lead to victory one turn earlier than they did (ie, during May I, when it
first began to bog down). With Blucher launched in June I (rather than June
II), there would have been ample time to take Chateau Thierry, and probably
Chalons too.

David Buckland - 05:32am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#36 of 62) [ Mark ]

The last part (I promise):

The biggest mistake made by the Allies was the failure to keep the vital
Abbeville-Amiens-Montdidier-Compiegne railway clear, and to under-estimate
the importance of the Compiegne sector, which was therefore under-defended.
The Germans were allowed to take Compiegne all too easily, thus cutting the
Allied front in two, and this, plus their possession of Amiens, made it
difficult for the Allies to strategically redploy to the main areas
threatened by Michael.

The second offensive against the French came very close to success. Had 4th
Army been able to break into the French trenches east of Rheims, the
threatened envelopment of the French 3rd Army would have very possibly have
led to a precipitate retreat, and the early fall of Chalons. As it was, the
German 3rd Army towards the end of June II was fatally unable to sustain a
drive on Chalons and hold on to Chateau Thierry. There was some havering
between the two, and by the time the heavy French morale loss following the
fall of Compiegne clarified the issue in favour of CT, there was
insufficient time left.

The disastrous decision to avoid activating any German armies on the July II
turn (based on the erroneous idea that, without exploitation, the Allies
would not be able to out-manouevre the defenders) then put paid to any
chance of the Germans being able to spin things out for a draw. In
retrospect, a full-scale retreat to the original trench lines would have
been a better idea. The Allies would undoubtedly have penetrated it, but the
Germans could have extracted a much higher price in terms of time and
casualties. Moreover, unlike the Entente defenders during the German
offensives, the Germans would have had numerous defence lines on which to
fall back.

As the German, the swift change from being on the brink of victory to
staring defeat in the face was a shock: no wonder Ludendorff had a nervous
breakdown! Although the decision not to activate any armies on July II was a
catastrophe, the reluctance - mostly psychological - to abandon dearly-won
ground (by not retreating to the trench lines) mirrors what seems to have
happened in the real campaign.

Ted Raicer - 05:36am Oct 25, 1998 PST (#37 of 62) [ Mark ]

David, I'll have a detailed comment when I get the chance to study your
posts, but for now, I just want to thank you for posting it; designers love
reading this kind of stuff!

Ted