DAYS OF DECISION 1st Edition Analysis AXIS AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY: From: allan@tanelorn (Allan McKillop) Subject: DoD senario I looked at what it would take for the Axis to be aggressive. They have about 12 options that they must play (including Axis 44) to have a realistic chance to go to war. I broke the list up into 4 broad categories: 1) Germany gears up (Axis 16S, 5S, 6S, 11S, 12, 13, 24S) 2) Japan gears up (Axis 32S, 23S) 3) Axis sign pacts (Axis 7, 22) 4) Declaration of war (Axis 44) I did an analysis of the effects on the important minors if we play these. At the same time, I looked at the options the Allies are likely to play: 4, 6S, 7, 12, 13S, 19S, 24, 26 & 42S. I did a separate analysis if they also got 16S off too (I gave it about a 50/50 chance because they have a 1/2 chance of US or USSR activating on the first turn). The effects on the minors are (the number after the slash is if 16S is played): Axis effects Allied effects Totals Belgium -2 -1/+4 -3/+2 Czechos +6 +5/+10 +11/+16 Finland -6 +3/+5 -3/-1 Netherl -1 -3/0 -4/-1 Poland +6 0/+3 +6/+9 Rumania -18 +5/+7 -13/-11 Sp. Rep +8 -6 +2 Sweden -3 -2/-6 -5/-9 Turkey -2 +6/+8 +4/+6 Yugosl +5 -2/0 +3/+5 As you can see, Czechoslovokia is a major problem in this senario. One should look into the annexation/conquest of Czechoslovokia cards (Axis 29 & 30). I also did a rough calculation of the US entry, and came about around +3 (not including the -5 for start of WIF). --allan ALLIED "JAPAN-FIRST" STRATEGY: From: allan@tanelorn (Allan McKillop) Subject: Re: DOD Things China can do to Japan during DOD: Allied 8 - China launches limited assault on Japan. [Axis 8 not played] 1. China and Japan are now at war 2. Chinese production increases to 1/2 3. # Chin./Jap. attacks is shown on weather table 4. China gets 1 offensive chit (US offers military aid 5. Place 2 Chinese INF on production sprial to arrive next turn) Allied 23 - China gears up for war production [China is at war] 1. Chinese production increases from 1/2 to 1 (CW provides military support 2. Place 2 Chinese INF on production sprial to arrive next turn) Things Russia can do to Japan: Allied 22 - Russia gears up for war production [Axis 24] 1. Russian production increases from 1/4 to 1/2 (Stalin announces creation of Armour Corps 2. Russia adds white print ARM to force pool) Allied 32 - Russia declares war on Japan [Allied 7, Axis 32 not played] 1. Russia and Japan are now at war 2. Russia recieves 1 offensive chit (Offers military support to China 3. Place 2 Chinese INF on production sprial to arrive next turn) If China & Russia were to attack Japan, they would have a total of 4 + 3 production to start with and maxing out at 8 + 7. Japan starts out with 7 and maxs out at 21 (if both Axis 23 and 27 are played once war has started). It could be done. If both China and Russia declare war on Japan and Japan gears up fully, the US entry would probably be delayed slightly (more if the secondary options are chosen). Looks like the best time to start is 1938+. --allan From: allan@tanelorn (Allan McKillop) Subject: Re: DOD About the only thing Japan could do in response is to make a non-aggression pact with China/Russia. Japan cannot gear up until (1) it is already at war or (2) it is 1938+. If the allies wait until then (the later China/Russia declare war on Japan, the less the US entry penalization becomes), they might be able to seriously hurt Japan. If Germany gears up (Axis 13 & 24), then Russia can gear up before it has to go to war with Japan. If Germany remains peaceful, though, I don't think it is worth it (Japan can out produce Russia/China combined). --allan AXIS "RUSSIA-FIRST" STRATEGY: From: allan@tanelorn (Allan McKillop) Subject: Re: DOD To declare war on Russia, Russia must either declare war on Poland (unlikely if it is messing with Japan) or Germany must play Axis 7 (Axis anti-communist pact signed), Axis 22 (Germany & Italy announce pact of steel) and Axis 24 (Germany gears up from 2 to 3, this requires Axis 13). So the Allies should have some warning what Germany is about to do (Axis 7 & 22). That would be tough because Germany would have to go for Russia immediately and leave France alone. --allan From: allan@tanelorn (Allan McKillop) Subject: Re: DOD I have doubts about how much Germany can do to counter an Allied Anti-Japan policy. If Germany goes to war too early against Russia, he'll have the CW and France attacking him from the west without enough force to both defend and attack. I think it would be an interesting thing to try... --allan